Writer sees China's 'coming collapse'


Chang says foreign businesses will suffer if China collapses

Alex Frew McMillan

HONG KONG, China (CNN) -- Former lawyer and Hong Kong resident Gordon Chang stopped practising last year to focus on writing a book, "The Coming Collapse of China," that predicts a loss of power for the Communist Party leadership.

Chang, who now lives in the United States, has returned to Asia to promote the book, which was published in the U.S. last July and more recently released in Taiwan.

He says it has proven popular there and he has heard Chinese President Jiang Zemin read the book, though it remains banned in mainland China.

Chang says he is more convinced than ever that China will crumble in the near future, as the Communist Party loses power. He spoke to Alex Frew McMillan in CNN's Hong Kong office.

CNN: What are the prospects for multinationals in China if it does collapse?

Chang: I think that it's probably going to be very difficult for foreign business. You've got to remember that no country likes to see foreigners come in and buy the place up. I live in the United States and saw the Japanese come in and buy up Los Angeles, buy up New York, buy up the rest of the country. I didn't particularly enjoy watching that occur. But you've got to remember that China is even more sensitive because they've had this "Two Hundred Years of Humiliation," as they call it.


Chang's book foresees a loss of power for the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party

CNN: And you still believe the country will crumble, despite the current bullishness on China?

Chang: I believe that in the decade from the release of the book that the Communist Party will no longer be ruling China. And I also think that within a 5 or 6-year timeframe we could see the party go.

CNN: Some people would say the Communist Party is not the same Communist Party, since it lets entrepreneurs in. Is that right?

Chang: The party leaders, the people that count, still believe in Marxism or profess their belief in Marxism. Only they know what they really think. The important thing is that their professed belief slows down the response of the regime to modernization. They still believe in the state control of assets. They even say that they are not into privatization, because that is too politically sensitive. Of course they are. But it slows down their ability to meet the challenges of today.

CNN: So in 10 years, will we be looking at a China that is different states like the United States or different countries like the former USSR?

Chang: All the book says is that after the Communist Party, at last the Chinese people will have hope. How it collapses and what happens is really hard to say. The 20th century showed that when people have a choice, they choose freedom and democracy. Although Chinese people have their own culture, they are after all people. They will choose the same as everyone else. But when the regime goes, it's most likely going to be extremely messy.

CNN: In South Africa, we saw a brutal and widely criticized regime give up power peacefully. Could that happen in China?

Chang: It's unlikely. Of course it could happen. Just because I predict collapse doesn't mean that I want collapse. The problem is that because people want a peaceful collapse, that's what they predict. I think that's a lot of wishful thinking. Even today you see increasingly harsh crackdowns on various elements of society, the Tibetans, the Falon Gong, democracy advocates. Are we to believe that they will suddenly wake up tomorrow and say, 'Oh, we were really horrible to all of these groups?' That's just not how the party operates.

CNN: You say China will adopt democracy. But might China just adopt capitalism?

Chang: I don't think the leaders in Beijing in their hearts believe in capitalism. But nonetheless the Chinese people do. Some people say it's in the Chinese blood. I don't want to get into that. But my father, the first thing he did after he got his master's degree is open a restaurant. That failed. So he went back to engineering, which is what he got his master's degree in. First thing he did when he got to 55 is, take early retirement and open a restaurant, with the same name.


People want more choice, says Chang

CNN: We saw in the 1990s that Americans forget about politics if the economy goes well. Will that happen in China?

Chang: Americans do not care about politics when everything is OK. When things are not OK , Americans care very much about politics. We saw that in September 11. Chinese people are the same way. Of course they want a better standard of living. But they also want a more open political system. People want more choice. that's common sense.