Maybe baby? Maybe later in Hong Kong


Hong Kong, the 'City of Light,' is always bustling despite a falling ratio of babies and young people

By Alex Frew McMillan

HONG KONG, China (CNN) -- When Murray and Dimple Bennetto welcomed their son Ryan into the world on April 6, they had no idea they were saving the Hong Kong economy.

They were just having their first child.

"I guess me and Dimple aren't what you'd call typical Hong Kongers," Murray Bennetto, a sports-club tennis coach, said.

He and Dimple, a flight attendant, met in Hong Kong and have lived here for some 12 years. They are a Canadian-Indian couple, rather than the ethnic Chinese who make up the bulk of the population.

So they are and they aren't representative of Hong Kong's "melting wok." But at least in waiting until their 30s to have kids, they are.

Hong Kong's jobless rate hit 7.0 percent, the government said this week -- a level Hong Kong has never before been seen (full story).

But good and bad economic times come and go. It is the birth rate that shows a more alarming trend, as painful as joblessness is.

An aging population

Hong Kong's birth rate is dropping. Rising unemployment grabs the headlines. But the birth figure is the one some stock-market participants do not want to discuss openly.

The reason? It shows a trend toward an aging population, and ultimately a struggling, even dying, economy.


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Hong Kong's population is falling, but not in the traditional sense. New immigrants make up for people moving away, as they always have, even during the 1997 handover to China from the United Kingdom.

"In the early '90s, there were a lot of emigrants, but there were also quite a lot of people coming from mainland China, so that counterbalanced it," explained Billy Li, a statistician for the Hong Kong government. "So in the last decade, the population has been growing all the time."

At last count, there are 6.76 million "Hong Kongers." The population rose 0.5 percent by the end of 2001, from the middle of the year.

But Hong Kong, which after all makes shipping one of its main industries, can always raise visa quotas and "ship" in more people. The problem that alarms Li and others is that Hong Kongers who are already here keep getting older and keep having fewer young people to support them.

The total rate of natural increase in Hong Kong's population -- excluding changes due to moving -- has fallen from 13.0 new people per 1,000 in 1981, to 7.0 people in 1991 and now 2.4 people in 2001.

"Looking at the historical figures, you can see that the birth rates in the past five years has decreased quite significantly," Li said.

Economic uncertainty

People choose not to have or to have children for personal reasons. But the disruption over the 1997 handover, the implementation of China's "One Country, Two Systems" system, the uncertain economy after the Asia crisis and now have all encouraged more people to not have kids.

Increasing numbers of women also prefer to pursue careers and enjoy single life before starting a family. Some decide not to start one at all.

But even those women who do want to start a family increasingly struggle in Hong Kong. There are more young women in Hong Kong than men, with 960 males for every 1,000 females.

That was not true in 1991, when there were 1,038 men to every 1,000 women. The population hit a perfect balance in 1996, with exactly even numbers of females to males. As of 2001, there are now 960 men to every 1,000 women.

"There is a big mismatch," said one investment-bank economist who did not want to be identified. "My personal guess would be that a lot of Hong Kong males are working overseas, working abroad, or have just moved to China."

China's economy is growing fast, compared with a heavy slump in Hong Kong. Another common refrain -- true or not -- is that Hong Kong men prefer to find wives in China because they are easier to please.

Bad for consumption

Whatever the motives, Hong Kong's slumping birth rate is certainly not good news for the economy.

"We are not expecting the natural birthrate to rise -- and it's obviously bad for consumption," said the economist, who wished to remain anonymous to protect his employer. "I have a lot of friends who delayed their marriage or are delaying to have a baby simply because of very uncertain job prospects."

Though it is too early to tell, there are some signs the United States may experience a baby boom after the September 11 disaster and subsequent war in Afghanistan.

"I doubt that would happen in Hong Kong," the economist added. " I think people are still very concerned."

Hong Kong could open its borders, to attract young and talented workers. But the government is currently in the process of removing "right of abode" petitioners from mainland China (full story).

Meantime, the Hong Kong government has prepared a videotape encouraging companies not to pay attention to how old or young an employee is.

"Count On Talent Not Age In Employment," is the name of the video.

"Regardless of their age, there is always a place for people with abilities," the public-service announcement script states. "Remember, when recruiting, it's ability that counts, not age."

Though, of course, the advertisement is age-neutral, it is perhaps significant that it focuses on the word "age" rather than "youth."

The Bennettos say they may move abroad if Ryan's schooling proves too expensive. But for now the family is here to stay.

Having kids late is "average, especially for Hong Kong," Murray Bennetto said. "It's a very professional, business-oriented city. My friends back home have bigger families."