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Count on sequels, surprises for summer movie season

Can "Spider-Man" catch audiences in his web for long this summer?

(CNN) -- Those irreverent government agents in the so-cool sunglasses? They'll be unearthing more incognito aliens in "Men in Black 2."

That big-libido Brit with the bad teeth? He's going for three in "Austin Powers in Goldmember."

For the love of God and country, Tom Clancy's Jack Ryan is back, too, in "The Sum of all Fears."

And you may have heard something about a new "Star Wars" installment, featuring an encore performance by Jar Jar Binks and friends in "Episode II -- Attack of the Clones."

Sequels are nothing new, of course, but rarely if ever have so many -- "Stuart Little," "Halloween" and "Friday the 13th" installments are also in the mix -- dominated the same summer season.

Even some of the non-sequels don't exactly venture into uncharted territory, namely Tobey Maguire's stab at "Spider-Man" and a live-action rendering of "Scooby-Doo."

"You've got to make a big impact in the summertime, and the way you do that is a title somebody already knows," said Sandy Kenyon, contributing editor for Parade Magazine.

Prosper or perish in crowded schedule

Beyond the sequel distinction, 2002 is remarkable for the sheer volume of films -- more than 50 -- being rolled out by the major studios from May through August, according to Paul Dergarabedian, president of Exhibitor Relations Co., a Los Angeles-based box office tracking business.

Will "Minority Report," Steven Speilberg's collaboration with Tom Cruise, be strong enough to stay afloat at the box office this summer?

He calls it one of the most crowded summers ever.

"It looks like a record-breaking summer," he said. "It's a summer loaded with big, event films and I think audiences are going to be moving around rather quickly."

That means they'll have to prosper quickly, or perish.

"It's really difficult for one film to have legs, to have staying power, in other words, because every weekend there's a tremendous amount of competition," he said.

Among the films expected to have more than a little extra staying power is director Steven Spielberg's much-anticipated "Minority Report," a sci-fi thriller featuring Tom Cruise as a cop in a department that's able to arrest killers before they commit their crimes.

In the adult-oriented action niche, Matt Damon stars in "The Bourne Identity," an adaptation of the best-selling Robert Ludlum novel. And while Ben Affleck has assumed the Jack Ryan role in "The Sum of All Fears," Harrison Ford surfaces with Liam Neeson in "K-19," based on the true story of a nuclear sub racing to avoid a disastrous explosion.

Beyond the 'testosterone-driven' films

All these potential blockbusters may not leave much breathing room for lower-budget entries with lesser-known actors.

"This a battle of the giants here in the summer, and it does make it very difficult for a small film to get noticed," Dergarabedian said.

This summer's movie schedule seems to be all about options. In May, viewers get to choose between Ewan McGregor and Hayden Christensen in "Star Wars," Hugh Grant in "About a Boy," and Reese Witherspoon in "The Importance of Being Earnest."

But a few that don't fit the typical summer-movie profile could just slip through and succeed.

"Most of these films, they're testosterone-driven, and it does actually offer a counterprogramming opportunity for films that are not your typical summer fare, or are films aimed at the female audience," Dergarabedian said.

That's why "About a Boy," featuring Hugh Grant as a swinging bachelor who bonds with a 12-year-old boy, is coming out the same weekend (May 16-17) as "Attack of the Clones."

And Sandra Bullock may get herself a hit in "Divine Secrets of the Ya-Ya Sisterhood," co-starring with Ashley Judd, Ellen Burstyn and Maggie Smith in a book adaptation directed by Callie Khouri, who wrote the script for "Thelma & Louise."

But along with surprise hits, count on a few can't-miss blockbusters to become box office bombs. Remember "Pearl Harbor," anyone?

"Somebody's going to get hurt this summer," Dergarabedian said. "No question about it."