Analysis: Mugabe's cat-and-mouse game

Mugabe faces his toughest challenge in 22 years with the March elections

LONDON, England (CNN) -- When EU ministers last met to discuss Zimbabwe, they made what sounded like a clear decision. Unless President Robert Mugabe let in EU observers and the international media and conducted free and fair elections, they would impose sanctions against him and his regime.

Since then, Commonwealth observers have arrived in Zimbabwe. So have some from the EU. But as the accreditation process goes on, the Mugabe regime's rules seem to be changing. The president insisted the EU observers were only junior partners to the Africa-Caribbean-Pacific (ACP) group.

"In line with Zimbabwe's tradition of holding open and democratic elections, my government will be inviting among others ... a joint ACP and European delegation, excluding the UK but led by the ACP," Mugabe said.

Pierre Schori, leader of the EU observer delegation, has been refused credentials. And with a government-dominated newspaper comparing EU observers with those who came to Zimbabwe to watch elephants, Mugabe's international affairs minister, Stan Mudenge, continued the downgrading.

"There is no invitation to the EU as an organisation per se. Those who come to visit us are welcome as tourists if we have not invited you to come and observe our elections," Mudenge said.

Schori says the confusion cannot be allowed to continue.

"That is not my primary mission here to be a tourist. So therefore we need a clarification from the Zimbabwe government how they really look on the EU and its mission," Schori said.

The crunch point is approaching. EU foreign ministers, who meet again next Monday, had last month made their threat to Mugabe very public.

"Whether he takes notice or not, I'm not sure, but what I am certain about is that if he does not call off his thugs, allow free and fair elections, allow the international media in, then these sanctions will kick in," UK Foreign Secretary Jack Straw said at the time.

EU leaders know that Mugabe is playing cat and mouse, deliberately clouding the issue. There's a danger that if they do impose sanctions, he will close down the election process further, and the violence and intimidation will increase.

But they know that if they don't act soon in response to Mugabe's provocation, they are in danger of losing their credibility in Africa.