Mbeki's key role in Zimbabwe crisis

South Africa's Mbeki is seen as a key power-broker in the Zimbabwe poll-rumpus

HARARE, Zimbabwe (CNN) -- The Commonwealth will decide on Tuesday whether to take action against Zimbabwe following bitterly-contested elections in which Robert Mugabe was re-elected president.

Three Commonwealth leaders -- South Africa's President Thabo Mbeki, Nigeria's President Olusegun Obasanjo and Australia's John Howard -- are to make the decision on behalf of the 54-nation group after allegations from its observers that the election was rigged.

Options available to them are sanctions or suspension from the Commonwealth, though divisions have emerged between the African and other nations on what action to take.

A key figure in the decision is Mbeki, leader of the region's economic powerhouse and major motivator behind a development plan that could see millions of dollars of investment being poured into the region.

He, and Obasanjo, were to meet Mugabe on Monday ahead of the troika discussions, in the hope of persuading the Zimbabwean leader to come to a compromise, such as a national unity government.

Q: What suggestions is Mbeki expected to take with him to Harare?

A: The main proposal is likely to be one of national unity, so that members of the opposition party, the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) should be included in Mugabe's new government.

The MDC won 1.3 million of the votes, compared to 1.7 million for Mugabe's ZANU-PF party. Support for the MDC, led by Morgan Tsvangirai, is strongest in the major towns.

Another option is to try and persuade Mugabe to appoint a moderniser and moderate, such as the finance minister Simba Makoni, to the post of prime minister.

Other possibilities might include a re-run of the presidential elections, or Mugabe agreeing to stand down soon into his six-year term.

Q: How likely are any of the plans to succeed?

A: The latter two seem least likely bearing in mind the determination shown by the 78-year-old Mugabe in wanting to extend his 22-year reign. You don't go to all that effort just to give it up.

The national unity plan has also come in for some scepticism, especially after comments made by Mugabe and Tsvangirai in the aftermath of the elections.

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Tsvangirai has said he will not allow any of his members to sit in a coalition government unless there is a re-run of the election.

Mugabe, in his inauguration speech on Sunday, talked mainly of his mandate to continue with the controversial land reform programme, as well as anti-British and anti-imperial statements.

Senior officials in the MDC criticised Mugabe's rhetoric for being predominantly anti-opposition. One official said he thought it was 90 percent vitriol.

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The MDC thought that comments about pre-colonialisation were aimed at themselves. Mugabe has accused Tsvangirai of being a "stooge of Britain."

It is difficult to see what formulation would bring the country together to prevent sanctions being imposed. Both party leaders are sticking to their positions.

Q: Why is Mbeki so important to the outcome?

A: Mbeki is the key figure because of the economic clout of South Africa. So far, he has adopted a gentle approach, perhaps because of the African tradition of paying respect to one's elders.

Mbeki has only recently followed in the footsteps of Nelson Mandela as leader of his country, in comparison to Mugabe's 22 years.

Any unrest in Zimbabwe will have immediate affects on South Africa -- refugees already flow across the border between the two neighbours to escape the escalating poverty in Zimbabwe.

There is little understanding between the two leaders, as the political origins of the countries' parties are different. South Africa's ANC has a liberal democratic tradition while ZANU-PF is an Africanist movement.

Being leader of a south African economic powerhouse he could pull the plug on Zimbabwe's source of energy or impose blockades.

But if Mbeki fails to succeed he faces serious setbacks on two fronts -- possible revolt in Zimbabwe and the disappearance of much-needed international aid.

Q: Isn't there a precedent for South African power-broking in Zimbabwe?

A: Yes, in 1965 South African prime minister John Vorster withdrew his support of Ian Smith, the then leader of Zimbabwe which was called Rhodesia, because of his inability to keep the war against southern Africa's white governments at bay.

Vorster ditched Smith by threatening land-locked Rhodesia's trade route.

Q: What could happen if Mbeki fails in his mission?

A: The MDC has its strongest support in the towns, and there are fears that if nothing is done they may revolt against the election result, which Tsvangirai has condemned as "illegitimate."

Also, Tsvangirai was Zimbabwe's trade union leader and has links to South Africa's trade union association which could take sympathetic action.

At risk also is international aid as part of the New Partnership for African Development (Nepad), backed primarily by Britain's Prime Minister Tony Blair.

At the core of Nepad is a commitment by the continent's leaders to good governance, democratic principles and to holding one another accountable.

The West, and in particular the U.S., has accused Mugabe of holding the elections in an atmosphere of fear and intimidation.

If Mbeki is seen to side with Zimbabwe Nepad comes under threat. It would also be an embarrassment for Blair.

South Africa has already alarmed the West with some of its comments since the Zimbabwe result was announced.