Taiwan Strait talks lack vision

Government and commercial vessels from the mainland and Taiwan were engaged in a joint effort after China Airlines flight 611 crashed into the Taiwan Straits

(CNN) -- The good news about the Taiwan Strait is that a number of auspicious signs and initiatives have recently been floated.

The flip side of the coin, however, is that both the mainland and Taiwan authorities seem to lack statesmanlike vision and a conciliatory spirit to pursue these openings.

And unless a breakthrough is achieved soon, a plethora of negative developments on the horizon will quickly nudge cross-Strait ties back to a vicious cycle.

The relative upbeat turn of events began last month when Beijing's Taiwan Affairs Office (TAO) made an unusually quick response to Taiwan president Chen Shui-bian's apparently casual remark that he would consider sending unofficial figures to the mainland to discuss the Three Direct Links -- mail, transport and trade.

TAO chief Chen Yunlin called a press conference on May 21 to announce that Taiwan could send businessmen such as Wang Yung-ching and Kao Chin-yen -- both major investors in the mainland -- as negotiators for setting up links.

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And most surprising for the head of a conservative and bureaucratic department, Chen Yunlin did not even stipulate that Taipei's recognition of the one-China principle was a precondition for talks.

At the same time, Beijing let it be known through a Chinese-run Hong Kong paper that even Chen's counterpart, the Chairman of Taipei's cabinet-level Mainland Affairs Council, Tsai Ying-wen, could go to the mainland under an "appropriate" designation.

Tsai, a protégé of former president Lee Teng-hui, is deemed a pro-independence hawk by the Chinese.

Air crash diplomacy

Then followed what pundits have called "air crash diplomacy."

In the wake of the downing of the China Airlines jet off the outlying island of Penghu on May 25, up to ten different government units in the mainland have offered help in rescue operations.

For the first time, government and commercial vessels from both sides were engaged in a joint effort of some kind -- and in the vicinity of the sensitive mid-point line of division of the Strait.

And in an unusually friendly gesture last Sunday, mainland civil aviation authorities handed over to Taipei radar information on the doomed aircraft.

A number of mainland officials as well as pro-unification politicians in Taiwan have proposed that the bodies of the nine mainland passengers be flown back directly to the mainland, thus setting a small precedent for "direct flight."

According to a Chinese source familiar with Beijing's Taiwan policy, President Jiang Zemin hopes that some form of a breakthrough at this stage will bolster his position at the 16th Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Congress scheduled for the autumn.

Jiang is expected to announce at the 16th Congress that national reunification -- along with the "second," or more advanced, stage of economic modernization -- is one of the CCP's priority goals for the first part of the 21st century.

And Jiang wants the world to know that it is under his tutelage that substantial progress on Taiwan has been made.

"With relations with the U.S., Russia and Japan not going too well, a breakthrough on the Taiwan front would help Jiang consolidate his legacy in the diplomatic and reunification arenas," said the source.

Delaying tactics

However, it seems unlikely that the positive sentiments of these past few weeks will metamorphose into a real thaw between the CCP and President Chen's pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).

Chen has stuck to what Beijing -- and Taiwan opposition parties including the Nationalists -- has called delaying tactics.

Analysts close to the DPP say Chen does not want to send pro-unification figures such as businessmen Wang and Kao to the mainland for fear that should a breakthrough occur, the credit will go to parties and organizations other than the DPP.

Apart from not responding to Beijing's offer of "people-to-people" talks, Taipei last week put obstacles in the way of renowned economist Justin Lin's return to Taiwan to attend his father's funeral.

A former Taiwan resident, Lin, now a top professor at Peking University, defected to the mainland in 1979.

And while the Taiwan government said Lin could return to the island for the funeral scheduled for Tuesday, military and judicial departments had indicated they would pursue the legal responsibility of Lin's "apostasy."

Lin, considered a some-time economic adviser to Premier Zhu Rongji, was forced to call off the trip.

In response to the Chen administration's apparent lack of sincerity, the TAO switched back to its old mode.

At a press conference last week, TAO spokesman Zhang Mingqing reiterated that "talks between both sides, whether official or unofficial, have to proceed under the principle of one China."

Playing the bad cop, Zhang also slammed Chen for "saying one thing and doing another thing."

Zhang's tough words have aroused suspicion that Beijing's earlier expressions of good will were a mere propaganda ploy -- or time-tested CCP-style psychological warfare.

Action needed

Analysts fear that should no progress be made soon, the momentum will lapse -- and a vicious cycle set in.

Time is of the essence. From July until March next year, the CCP leadership will be bogged down in internecine bickering on how the top party and government posts will be parceled out among the factions.

And by March 2003, political parties in Taiwan will have begun the first stage of campaigning for presidential polls to be held in March 2004.

"It is most unlikely that Beijing will negotiate the three links with Chen's emissaries -- even those whom the CCP can accept -- within one year of Taiwan's presidential elections," said a Western diplomat.

"Beijing knows very well that progress on the three links will spell benefit for Chen's re-election bid."

In the mean time, however, developments detrimental to cross-Straits ties are about to unfold in quick succession.

Diplomatic sources in Taipei and Washington say it is likely that Taiwan Defense Minster Tang Yiau-ming will soon make a second "private visit" to the U.S.

And on this trip, Tang is expected to meet with an official more senior than Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz, with whom he held talks in Florida last March.

Arrangements are also being made by "pro-Taiwan" legislators and politicians in the U.S. for private visits to by Taiwan Vice-President Annette Lu and President Chen.

Lu's American tour could take place before President Jiang's U.S. trip in October -- and that of Chen in early 2003.

Moreover, the quasi-official military relationship between the U.S. and Taiwan, which Beijing finds revolting, will have become more obvious with expected new American arms sales to the island.

Faced with these challenges, the new leadership under Vice-President Hu Jintao will likely react in a hard-line manner, thus choking off any chance of a cross-Strait rapprochement.

With his uncertain grip on power, Hu is much more exposed than Jiang to criticism from military officers and other nationalistic factions that Beijing has failed to stand up to Washington or check the pro-independence gambit of President Chen.