Gloomy forecast for Hong Kong democracy

Chief Executive Tung (C) will start his second term in office on July 1

(CNN) -- Despite Beijing's upbeat assessment of Hong Kong five years after the July 1, 1997 handover, the future of "one country, two systems" and "50 years no change" hangs in the balance.

Chinese authorities have heaped one tribute after another on Hong Kong's success -- and the performance of Tung Chee-hwa, Beijing's hand-picked chief executive.

Vice-Premier Qian Qichen, the highest cadre responsible for the Special Administrative Region (SAR), said earlier this week the Tung administration had chalked up "a very great achievement in implementing 'one country, two systems'."

The official Xinhua news agency noted that the past five years' experience of "Hong Kong people running Hong Kong" had "won the respect of the world."

However, a number of developments have pointed to the fact that the "one country" side of the equation -- that is, Beijing's increasingly solid control over the SAR -- is being emphasized at the expense of "two systems," or local autonomy.

RESOURCES Photo gallery: 1997-2002 through the lens  Timeline: Five years under Chinese rule    IN-DEPTH One Country Two Systems: 5 Years On    CNN NewsPass VIDEO Five years after its handover to China, fears over Hong Kong's political fate have given way to concerns about its economic viability. CNN's Lisa Barron reports. Play video CNN's Lisa Barron looks at the relationship between Hong Kong and mainland China visitors. Play video   MORE STORIES • Hong Kong tops economic freedom rating  • Repression marks anniversary  • China assures economic push  • Who needs Hong Kong?

Much of the Hong Kong conundrum is evident from the accountability or "ministerial" system that Tung has introduced to centralize powers in his hands -- and to further marginalize the "democrats," an omnibus term for elected politicians who are after a faster pace of democracy.

New system

Under the ministerial system, which was a product of close consultation between the Tung office and Beijing, Tung is empowered to appoint the 14 policy secretaries, who report to Tung and serve at his pleasure.

Until this development, the secretaries were mostly drawn from the ranks of civil servants, who were supposed to be politically neutral.

The new system is widely seen as Beijing's sign of distrust of senior civil servants, the great majority of whom spent the bulk of their career under the British.

This was indirectly confirmed by Vice-Premier Qian, who told a Hong Kong TV station that because Tung was obliged in mid-1997 to retain former governor Chris Patten's senior staff, his was a "one man show" during much of his first term.

Qian added Beijing had confidence Tung would do better in his second term because under the accountability system, he would be in a position to appoint and "work with like-minded people."

Pro-Beijing

The vice-premier was, in a roundabout fashion, repeating the familiar charge that certain top civil servants, perhaps out of residual loyalty to the British, were reluctant to work for Tung -- or Beijing.

In Tung's just-announced new team, "like-minded" businessmen and pro-Beijing politicians have a markedly higher representation.

This trend is even more obvious when the full Executive Council (Exco), or cabinet, whose membership has been expanded from 12 to 20, is considered.

Apart from the 14 secretaries, Tung has appointed five cabinet members who enjoy Beijing's full trust.

Prominent among them are two leaders of influential political parties: Tsang Yok-sing, the chairman of the pro-Beijing Democratic Alliance for the Betterment of Hong Kong; and James Tien, who heads the pro-government, business-oriented Liberal Party.

Since the two parties control at least 18 votes in the Legislative Council (Legco) -- less than half of whose 60 members are popularly elected -- Tung is guaranteed control over the legislature.

Democracy

Hong Kong's unemployment rate is at a record high with more than seven percent

The Vice-Chairman of the Hong Kong Democratic Party, Yeung Sum, said the democrats were not intimidated by these changes because, he indicated, "our image as the opposition party will become more clear-cut."

However, it is also true that the new development would make it even easier for Tung -- and Beijing -- to sideline pro-democracy politicians.

In his interviews with Hong Kong media earlier this week, Qian also tried to dampen expectations about a faster pace of democracy.

He pointed out "to promote democracy in Hong Kong, one cannot have Hong Kong emulating the systems of other regions."

Qian's statement was seen as highlighting the undesirability of the SAR holding "Western-style" polls to pick Legco members or the chief executive.

Anti-subversive law

An equally disturbing phenomenon is that with Beijing's blessings, the Tung administration is expected to enact legislation next year to embody Article 23 of Hong Kong's Basic Law, or mini-constitution.

The article says the SAR should pass laws to forbid acts of subversion and sedition against Beijing, to stop theft of state secrets, and to prohibit foreign political organizations from conducting activities in Hong Kong or forming ties with the SAR's political entities.

The Secretary for Justice Elsie Leung, well-known for her intimate ties with Beijing, has just had her term of office extended for two years so that she can supervise the drafting and enactment of the anti-subversion legislation.

Chinese sources said legal drafters in Beijing had already come up with early versions of the feared statute.

Independent Legco member and well-known barrister Margaret Ng said the anti-subversion law would cast "a big chill" on the freedom of expression in the SAR.

Human rights organizations in Hong Kong say it is possible that the legislation will be used to ban groups that support dissidents on the mainland, to rein in the media as well as to curtail the activities of Western -- particularly American -- NGOs and civil rights watchdogs in Hong Kong.

As out-going U.S. Consul General Michael Klosson pointed out, "there are fears [the anti-subversion law] could become a device to limit discussion or activities deemed sensitive to the mainland."

Logistic hub

The site of the Hong Kong government's flagship IT project, the Hong Kong Cyberport

On the economic front, mainland officials have asked the SAR government to consider developing high technology in addition to remaining the financial and logistics hub of the region.

While talking to Hong Kong reporters earlier this week, Qian noted that because Hong Kong's traditional industries had almost all moved to Guangdong, it was to the SAR's advantage to go hi-tech.

The vice-premier said: "So long as Hong Kong continues to have high technology, talents and creativity, it can still prosper."

While salaries in Hong Kong are highly competitive, it has since the late 1990s lost out to Taiwan, Singapore and even Shanghai in the battle to attract IT professionals from Silicon Valley.

One major reason is the perception that Hong Kong has become too much of a Chinese city, where cases of self-censorship on campuses and in newsrooms have become more frequent.

As Margaret Ng sees it, in the five years after July 1 1997, the SAR has become much less of the international city that it was just five or six years ago.

Clearly, Beijing -- and Tung's -- desire to have a tighter grip on SAR affairs could destroy the key ingredients of Hong Kong's success formula: freedom of expression, independence of thinking, creativity, and a global outlook that towers above petty concerns about political correctness.