China military strike on Taiwan 'unlikely'

Beijing is expected to play up the economic losses that Taiwan will sustain as a result of Chen's "anti-China" postures

HONG KONG, China (CNN) -- Beijing is unlikely at this stage to use the military option in retaliation against Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian's pro-independence remarks last Saturday.

However, hawkish generals in the People's Liberation Army (PLA) have continued to urge the leadership to speed up military preparations to "liberate the renegade province."

In a statement on Monday, the spokesman of the cabinet-level Taiwan Affairs Office slammed Chen for advocating separatism and "bringing Taiwan toward disaster." (Full story)

This was in response to Chen's indication over the weekend that Taiwan might consider legislation on holding a referendum to determine its future.

The native-Taiwanese leader also said Taiwan and the mainland were "[sovereign] countries on either side of the Strait."

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However, two prominent Beijing-based Taiwan experts have ruled out military action against Taiwan at this stage.

Zhu Weidong of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) said it would be an illusion to expect pro-separatist politicians such as Chen to negotiate with the mainland.

"We should put our hopes on putting pressure [on Taiwan] and on military force," the People's Daily website quoted Zhu as saying.

Zhu pointed out, however, that "we are not yet on the point of going to war."

'Concrete strength'

Another CASS Taiwan expert Sun Shengliang said Beijing had to rely on "concrete strength" to accomplish reunification.

"Yet it is still not time for a showdown," Sun said.

Other Chinese analysts said Beijing would for the time being mainly concentrate on verbal attacks against Chen, whom they had criticized by name for the first time since he became president in 2000.

Moreover, Beijing is expected to play up the economic losses that Taiwan will sustain as a result of Chen's "anti-China" postures.

This is part of China's united front tactics to alienate Chen from Taiwan's powerful corporate community, most of whose members have invested heavily in coastal China.

Elaborate military exercises

Western diplomats said the PLA had, as in past years, started elaborate military exercises along the southeast coast beginning April.

They said, however, it was unlikely the leadership of President Jiang Zemin would repeat missile drills and other provocative maneuvers -- which were held in 1996 and 2000 -- close to the island of Taiwan.

However, Chinese sources close to the PLA said hawkish officers would cite Chen's remarks to prod Jiang and other leaders towards speeding up military preparations for "liberating" Taiwan.

The sources said a group of generals had in early summer written a paper to Jiang that said the PLA should take military action before Washington launched an attack on Iraq.

The proposal said with the U.S. preoccupied with the Iraq and other fronts, Washington would not have time and resources to come to Taiwan's rescue should the PLA launch a short-duration missile strike against Taiwan.

The paper said it might be "too late" for China after Washington's Iraqi campaign because, if the U.S. was successful, it might be emboldened in playing global cop -- and it would not hesitate to come to Taipei's defense.