Jiang bids to retain power

For fear of provoking opposition, Jiang refuses to give an indication of his future political plans

HONG KONG, China (CNN) -- Chinese President Jiang Zemin is trying to persuade several key Politburo members to agree to his retaining the post of Communist party general secretary for at least a few more years.

This is despite the fact that during leadership meetings at the Beidaihe resort, the formal parts of which ended early last week, Jiang, 76, refused to give participants an explicit indication of his plans.

For fear of provoking opposition, Jiang and his top adviser, alternate Politburo member Zeng Qinghong, had not put the president's retirement -- or non-retirement -- on the Beidaihe agenda.

However, a party cadre close to the Beidaihe sessions said Jiang would in the coming few days engage in secret, one-on-one talks with Politburo Standing Committee (PSC) heavyweights including Premier Zhu Rongji, parliament chief Li Peng and Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) Chairman Li Ruihuan.

He said Jiang would offer "impressive inducements" to Zhu and Li, both of whom were until recently expected to retire from the Politburo along with Jiang.

The party cadre added Jiang's advisers were leaning toward creating the new position of a Singaporean-style senior minister in the government cabinet -- and offering the slot to Zhu and Li Peng, both 73, early next year.

"In the Singapore model, the senior minister has substantial powers apart from being a top adviser," said the cadre.

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He added while Zhu had said he wanted no post-retirement jobs and Li had indicated his desire for the state presidency, the senior minister's post might appeal to both politicians and their followers.

During horse-trading sessions with Politburo colleagues both at Beidaihe and Beijing this week, the president will also pledge to ensure the promotion of their protégés at the upcoming 16th party congress.

It is understood that at the first half of the Beidaihe meetings, which began the last week of July, Zhu and Li Ruihuan adopted a roundabout tactic to torpedo Jiang's power bid.

Coming clean

A source familiar with the party's factional dynamics said the two put pressure on Jiang to come clean on whether he wants to keep the general secretary's post.

"Zhu and Li said at Beidaihe since the party charter had nothing specific on retirement ages, whether Jiang would remain in office hinged largely on two factors: his health and his own wishes," the source said.

"They urged Jiang to make an early declaration because only after the party chief's post was filled could other personnel issues be resolved."

However, the president refused to go along because he was not sure of sufficient support for his violating the informal but well-known retire-at-70 convention.

Indeed, Jiang feared an explicit avowal of his intentions could trigger an avalanche of opposition from Politburo members and party elders bent on preserving the party's tradition of rejuvenation.

The source added the president merely said he trusted his comrades would soon arrive at a consensus on his future plans – and that he would abide by the "majority view."

Since the PSC -- China's highest ruling council -- has seven seats, Jiang needs the backing of at least three other members to remain party chief.

Vice-President Hu Jintao, 59, has the most to lose if the president succeeds because he had until recently been the frontrunner for the country's most powerful position.

However, at Beidaihe, Hu repeatedly indicated his unqualified support for Jiang's remaining in office.

It is expected Hu will be compensated with the state presidency or another top party or state job.

Bureaucratic battle

Jiang is said to ne planning to create a new position of senior minister to the government cabinet for Premier Zhu Rongji

Having been president for two terms, Jiang is barred by the state constitution to serve in that slot beyond March next year.

In the PSC, Jiang can also count on the backing of his ally, Executive Vice-Premier Li Lanqing, who just turned 70.

Li may be offered either the premiership or the CPPCC chairmanship.

Diplomatic analysts in Beijing said it was by no means certain that Jiang could prevail in perhaps his last bureaucratic battle.

The analysts said Zhu, Li Ruihuan and the PSC member in charge of discipline, Wei Jianxing, had in private criticized the president for running afoul of late patriarch Deng Xiaoping's strict stipulations about retirement.

For example, Zhu told intimates in an internal discussion that "it is the wish of all senior officials to continue the tradition of administrative reform, including rejuvenation of cadres."

Moreover, many Fourth Generation, or younger, cadres are known to resent Jiang's gambit because their own prospects for promotion will be hurt if a number of Third Generation politicians refuse to step down.

If Jiang has its way, only three PSC vacancies will be made available for the younger generation.

They are expected to be filled by Zeng, Vice-Premier Wen Jiabao and security specialist Luo Gan, respectively the protégés of Jiang, Zhu and Li Peng.

The four incumbents who will remain under this scenario are Jiang, Hu, Li Lanqing, and Li Ruihuan, who will replace Li Peng as parliament chief.