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Jiang rolls last diplomatic dice
By Willy Wo-Lap Lam, CNN Senior China Analyst
(CNN) -- Chinese President Jiang Zemin is wrestling with a series of thorny diplomatic issues in his last couple of months as Communist party General Secretary and head of its Leading Group on Foreign Affairs (LGFA). They include putting more pressure on Taiwan via the United States; handling the Iraqi crisis; and fine-tuning his vaunted Great Power Diplomacy particularly in relation to the United States and Russia. Much of Jiang's latest thinking on diplomacy will be evident in his upcoming trip to the United States, his last to a major country as head of state. According to cadres familiar with preparation for Jiang's visit, the president will focus on Taiwan, the one area where the out-going leader has failed to achieve anything solid in his 13 years in office. During his one-day tete-a-tete with counterpart George W. Bush in Crawford, Texas, next month, the 76-year-old cadre is expected to dwell on three points. Firstly, Washington has in Beijing's view been sending "wrong signals" to Taipei and this has encouraged the administration of Taiwan president Chen Shui-bian to up the ante in its pro-independence gambit. Jiang will emphasize that should a military crisis erupt over the Taiwan Strait, the U.S. would be implicated -- and this will be against Washington's long-term interests. Global terrorism
Secondly, Jiang will drop hints that with the focus and strength of the U.S. likely to be absorbed by its long-term struggle against global terrorism, it does not serve American purposes to be bogged down in a Taiwan-related quagmire. Thirdly, Jiang will play up the "growing interdependence" of China and the U.S. particularly in the field of commerce and investments. It is understood that in the latest brainstorming sessions that Jiang has held with his aides, a consensus has been reached that despite China's growing military clout, the price to pay for taking on the U.S. is still prohibitive. The president's advisers are convinced that the global balance characterized by the catch phrase "yichao duoqiang" ("one superpower, several strong powers or blocs") will persist into the foreseeable future, and it is to China's advantage to focus on building up its economic and military strength. "Jiang has agreed to moderate his Great Power Diplomacy, whose basic tenet is that Beijing should play a role in global affairs that is fully commensurate with its quasi-superpower status," said a Chinese source close to the diplomatic establishment. "Jiang and his aides agree that Beijing cannot solve the Taiwan problem without U.S. cooperation -- and that China's economy is still dependent on the American market and American investment." Thus, Beijing has made subtle indications that it will abstain from voting should the U.S. and United Kingdom sponsor a resolution in the United Nations that involves military action against Iraq. Confrontation avoidedChinese diplomats are also happy that with the U.S. seemingly obsessed with tackling international terrorism, direct Sino-U.S. confrontation can be avoided -- and China can attend to its developmental priorities without being sidetracked by the need to counter Washington's "anti-China containment policy." According to a seasoned Western diplomat, a new thrust in Jiang's global strategy is to be more skilful in exploiting the differences between the U.S. on the one hand, and one of the "duoqiang" or strong powers such as Russia on the other. "Should a contentious issue such as Iraq hot up, the Chinese leadership will not take the lead in opposing Washington," the diplomat said. "Rather, Beijing will lend its support to whichever major country has first taken the initiative to challenge the U.S." Thus, at least at the rhetorical level, the Jiang leadership's response to the Iraqi question has been made after careful studies of the Russian reaction. Of course, Jiang and his LGFA colleagues will continue to seek strategic alliances with other major powers in countering perceived American unilateralism. Military cooperation revivedThe latest phase of the war on terrorism has given Beijing an opportunity to revive military cooperation among members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which groups China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan. Largely a Chinese initiative, the SCO had in the first half year or so after September 11, 2001 been upstaged if not rendered superfluous by the U.S.-led global anti-terrorist coalition. Beijing was also incensed that SCO members such as Uzbekistan and Tajikistan had allowed U.S. troops to be stationed there on a semi-permanent basis. However, Washington's decision last month to formally label the East Turkestan Islamic Movement -- which Beijing claims has perpetrated some 200 major terrorist acts in Xinjiang -- a terrorist organization has given the Chinese leadership a new legitimacy in its long-standing effort to quash separatism and dissent in the restive region. And because the ETIM and allied organizations are also active in Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, Beijing has taken the lead in speeding up joint anti-terrorist maneuvers within the SCO. War gamesThe upcoming war games to be conducted in conjunction with Kyrgyzstan, which will be the first joint exercises that the People's Liberation Army has held with foreign military forces, could boost the SCO's internal cohesion and effectiveness. The PLA is planning similar anti-terrorist military drills with other SCO countries including Russia. Beijing has also expressed hope that the SCO anti-terrorist center established last year in Bishkek, capital of Kyrgyzstan, may finally become a functional rather than symbolic office. While the 16th Chinese Communist Party Congress is but a month or so away, little is known of the diplomatic views of Vice-President Hu Jintao, who is slated to succeed Jiang as Communist party chief and Head of the LGFA. That he is known to have been involved in preparations for Jiang's much-anticipated U.S. tour shows the 59-year-old cadre is fast learning the ropes of world affairs. It is also not sure who will step into the shoes of out-going Vice-Premier Qian Qichen as the Politburo member in charge of foreign policy. However, Jiang seems confident that whatever he is able to achieve in Crawford, Texas can set an example of pragmatism coupled with dexterity for the relatively inexperienced Hu team.
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