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'Bavarian factor' in German poll
By CNN European Political Editor Robin Oakley
MUNICH, Germany (CNN) -- When Gerhard Schroeder and Edmund Stoiber confronted each other in a TV debate, the chancellor wanted to talk about Iraq and the floods, while his challenger wanted to focus on the economy -- for obvious reaons. Schroeder is 500,000 short on his promise to curb unemployment, while Bavarian premier Stoiber has boosted state incomes 15 percent above the national average. And Bavaria has the second lowest jobless rate in Germany. But does Stoiber's local achievement qualify him to be given charge of the national economy? "Bavaria appears to be only a small part of Germany, but it's not so small," says Gernot Nerb of the Institute for Economic Research.
"It has 12 million inhabitants, and if you take the GDP, Bavaria ranks within the European Community on place No 7. That means there are now eight countries smaller than Bavaria." Stoiber has been switching Bavaria from an agricultural economy to a high-tech one, although a little of the glitter has gone. Unemployment rose quickest in the high-tech sector over the past year, and Stoiber's hopes of boosting Bavaria as a media centre were hit by the collapse of the Kirch empire. Neither Stoiber nor Schroder are offering the drastic labour market reforms needed to revitalise Germany's low growth rate. The real question is whether Stoiber's methods would translate to wider Germany. "High-tech industries are important for a country with high wages as Germany is, so there are good points which can be used for Germany as a whole," Nerb says. "But of course it will be difficult to duplicate all the measures." Adds Andreas Kiessling of the University of Munich: "Stoiber pushed privatising of state-owned companies mainly in the sector of energy, and with this money he tried to settle down new companies here in Bavaria. "So this model of Bavaria can't be transferred on national level and federal level, simply because you can't privatise much on the federal level." Stoiber's Bavarian roots are also having a non-economic effect on the campaign. No Bavarian has held the chancellorship for 40 years, and commentators agree there is a "Bavarian factor" in this contest. "Bavaria has its own status within Germany, which is comparable to that of the Texans in the USA," says Stoiber biographer Michael Stiller. "(Bavarians) are very independent, very confident. They are respected in the republic but not always understood." Religion also enters the equation. When Germany decided there shouldn't be crucifixes on classroom walls, Catholic Bavaria fought the decision all the way. "There are strong traditions in Bavaria," says the University of Munich's Kiessling. "We have a strong accent. People in the rest of Germany don't understand us if we speak in this strong accent, and so we seem to be something different. "Many say we are more conservative, we are more religious and so other Germans are suspicious of Bavarians." Jobs, though, remain the key election issue, which could ultimately give Stoiber's campaign the edge -- despite any anti-Bavarian prejudice. The essence of Stoiber's appeal to German electors is: "I've created growth and jobs in the Bavarian economy; trust me to do the same for Germany." But while Bavaria has forged ahead, Stoiber has been a subsidiser, not a reformer. There's a question whether Stoiber's methods could work for the whole of the sluggish German economy -- or even whether simply being a Bavarian will have proved too much of a handicap in his campaign for the chancellorship.
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