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German election too close to call

By CNN Frankfurt Bureau Chief Chris Burns

Residents examine campaign posters for Stoiber, left, and Schroeder
Residents examine campaign posters for Stoiber, left, and Schroeder

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COLOGNE, Germany (CNN) -- Germany's election has turned from certain defeat for Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder into a cliffhanger.

Schroeder has clawed his way back in the polls against conservative challenger Edmund Stoiber in a race that's now too close to call.

Through most of the summer, the writing on the wall seemed to spell Schroeder's political demise.

Economic bad news piled up -- more than 4 million unemployed again, nearly 10 percent -- forcing the Social Democrat to eat the words he uttered four years ago when he defeated longtime Chancellor Helmut Kohl.

At the time, Schroeder said if he couldn't cut unemployment by half a million, he wouldn't deserve to be re-elected in 2002.

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The German campaign has entered the "hot phase." CNN's Chris Burns reports. (September 17)
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FACTS

German parliamentary elections are Sunday September 22

Polls show Schroeder, Stoiber in dead heat

In 1998, Schroeder promised to cut jobless to 3.5m

Stoiber promises deeper cuts in taxes

Schroeder promises low-cost loans to create jobs

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Who will be Germany's next chancellor?

Incumbent Gerhard Schroeder
Challenger Edmund Stoiber
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Schroeder unwittingly handed Stoiber a stick to beat him with -- over and over again.

"Let's stick to the facts," Stoiber said during the candidates' first televised debate. "Four years ago (Schroeder) promised to cut unemployment significantly. He said there would not be more than 3.5 million unemployed. He added he wouldn't deserve to be elected if he didn't achieve that."

Stoiber built a lead of nearly 10 points, promising to slash taxes and loosen Germany's strict job protection rules to stimulate the economy. But his lead evaporated.

Schroeder, telegenic and personally more popular than Stoiber, became a comeback kid thanks to a bit of luck, charm and political acumen.

Despite his Achilles heel of unemployment, Schroeder managed to claw his way into a horserace by jumping out ahead of his challenger on two other major issues: Germany's devastating summer floods, and the possibility of a war in Iraq.

The chancellor spearheaded the relief effort during the country's worst floods in more than a century, promising billions in aid.

That earned Schroeder major points in the region where he needs them most -- the depressed former communist east.

And as Washington's threats against Baghdad intensified, Schroeder turned it into a campaign issue, vowing that Germany would not take part in an attack.

"What the Middle East needs is not more war, but more peace, ladies and gentlemen," Schroeder said.

The polls indicate a large majority of Germans oppose their country getting militarily involved in Iraq.

Schroeder was widely seen as winning the second and final televised debate, in part by challenging Stoiber to make his position clear on the issue.

Stoiber says that to pressure Iraq, the war option must remain open, though with U.N. backing.

Ironically, Washington may have handed Schroeder an issue that just may put him over the top -- though anything can happen in this last week of campaigning.



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