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Q&A: N. Ireland Assembly in crisis
LONDON, England -- The future of the Northern Ireland Assembly is in doubt after a raid on offices of the republican Sinn Fein party and a call by the pro-British Democratic Unionist Party for other unionists to withdraw from the power-sharing body. Senior CNN correspondent Nic Robertson examines the delicate political situation. Q. What developments are likely this week? A. There are due to be a series of meetings involving UK Prime Minister Tony Blair, his Irish counterpart Bertie Ahern, Gerry Adams who is the president of the republican Sinn Fein party, and David Trimble, leader of the assembly and head of the Ulster Unionist Party.
It appears that probably by the end of this week or early next week the Northern Ireland Assembly will be suspended by the UK Government. There will probably be some deadlines set whereby Sinn Fein is going to be expected to explain its situation. Many analysts say this is real decision time for Adams and that he must force the IRA to do more in terms of disarming. Q. Why is Monday's call by the Democratic Unionist Party significant? A. It is significant because there are due to be local elections for the assembly next May and out of what appears to be a breakdown of the assembly, the DUP is going to try to come out in the best possible light. Q. Where does this leave Trimble? A. Trimble is going to speak to Blair before making any decision to move his ministers out of the assembly. He is angry with the British government for an apparent lapse in security.
But his big concerns are within his own party among members who want to stay in the assembly and those who want to leave because they feel Sinn Fein has not done enough to make the IRA decommission its weapons. It leaves Trimble with no other option than to call for Dr. John Reid, the Northern Ireland Secretary in Tony Blair's UK government, to throw Sinn Fein out of the assembly. Q. How much would Reid have known about the raids? A. Analysts say Reid allowed the raid to go ahead. This throws the blame onto Sinn Fein. It forces Sinn Fein's hand to distance itself from the IRA. It also allows the UK government to collapse the assembly gently rather than have Trimble walk out and everybody throw their hands in the air. But Reid will be in a difficult position if the prosecution in the case following the raid does not secure a conviction. Sinn Fein's head of administration, Denis Donaldson has been charged with five charges alleging possession of information likely to be of use to terrorists
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