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Q & A: Poll debacle in Serbia
Although he won 58 percent of ballots cast, Yugoslav President Vojislav Kostunica was denied the chance to become President of Serbia after less than 50 percent of the electorate voted. Balkans analyst Tihomir Loza, Senior Editor of Transitions Online looks at why Serbia's second presidential poll in two months failed and what happens next. Q. Why did the election fail to reach the required 50 percent turnout? Loza: There are three main groupings in the Serb electorate and the problem is that one of them was not represented. Two major blocs were. First the extreme right wing, the ultra nationalists under Vojislav Seselj. Second the moderate nationalists under Yugsolav president Vojislav Kostunica -- probably the biggest chunk of the electorate. But the third bloc grouped around Serbian Prime Minister Zoran Djindjic did not have a candidate. They are a coalition between centre left pragmatists and liberals -- as represented by politicians such as Yugoslav foreign minister Goran Svilanovic. They are around a third of the electorate and were not represented. Q. Who drew up the election rules? Loza: The 50 percent rule stems from the 1990s when Slobodan Milosevic was president of Serbia. The Djindjic-led Serbian parliament amended the election legislation this November, after the failure of the first contest. But although it removed the 50 percent plus one voter rule in the second round, it stayed for the first round. Q. Did Djindjic tell his supporters not to vote? Is this why turnout fell below 50 percent? Loza: He didn't exactly say "stay away" but neither did he actually encourage anyone to vote. He argues that the presidency of Serbia is not an important enough post to be directly elected and that the president should be elected by the Serbian parliament. Q. Why did Kostunica want to become Serbian president when he is president of Yugoslavia as a whole? Loza: The Yugoslav president is not quite a ceremonial role but it is not as powerful a political position as, say, prime minsiter of Serbia -- Djinjic's post. And the post of Yugoslav president is coming to an end. The Federal Republic of Yugsolavia shortly ends and its two parts, Serbia and Montenegro are to form a new union called Serbia and Montenegro. Its likely the first president of the new union will be a Montenegrin. But there will be presidential posts for Serbia and Montenegro. Q. Can't they just have a third election? Loza: Theoretically they can but it's not very likely. What Djinjic is pressing for is Kostunica to accept a constitutional change which will allow the Serbian parliament to choose the Serb president. Q. Can Kostunica get the courts to declare him the winner?
Loza: It's possible. The constitution would have to be changed and I suspect he wouldn't win in the end unless there was a very complicated court verdict. It would take so long it would be unlikely to make a difference for Kostunica. Q. What is Kostunica's future now? Loza: He went into the election the most popular politician in Serbia and he will stay as a major player. But he has been exposed as someone who has appeared to have been rejected and this will affect his voter appeal. It could be debilitating to him. Q. What is the most likely outcome of the affair? Loza: Kostunica's Democratic Party of Serbia will try to woo as many allies in parliament as possible to press for early parliamentary elections -- at the moment not due until 2004. He will get the support of some Milosevic allies. He hopes to woo some waverers in the Djinjic alliance. Djindjic will try to retain his majority in the Serbian parliament to adopt the current budget and then go for constitutional changes. The budget is being debated over the next couple of weeks. Kostunica's allies blame the adoption of the budget for Serbia's ills and they will try to bring the government down and force early polls. It's on a knife-edge because Djindic only has a very small majority -- just a handful of seats. If Djindjic keeps his majority we'll see constitutional changes. If he doesn't we'll see early elections.
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