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Paul Clinton: Here are the Oscar winnersA wide-open year comes down to Sunday night
By Paul Clinton
(CNN) -- Murderous chorines, a neurotic novelist, a cleaver-happy butcher from Manhattan, a Polish pianist hunted by Nazis, and a whole gaggle of creatures from Middle-earth are battling their way towards Oscar night -- as the winds of war blow down Hollywood Blvd. and right into the Kodak Theatre, where reportedly "the show will go on" come Sunday. The 75th Annual Academy Awards will make history -- one way or the other. So, for better or worse, come what may, here are my bets on who will and who should win Hollywood's top honors. Best actressShould win: Renee Zellweger, "Chicago" Will win: Nicole Kidman, "The Hours" Zellweger's turn as Roxie Hart in "Chicago" is exactly the kind of performance that should win the top female acting nod. She took on a role no one thought she could handle and proved everybody -- except director Rob Marshall -- wrong. Zellweger, who was also nominated last year for "Bridget Jones's Diary," might not be able to sustain her amazing ability to sing and dance on Broadway with eight shows a week, but her performance caught on film is astounding -- and it won Zellwegger the SAG Award, which is what propelled Halle Berry to the winner's circle last year. Kidman's portrayal of Virginia Woolf in "The Hours" is also amazing, and involved a whole lot more than just a fake nose. She completely altered both her voice and her body language, to the point where you could hardly tell that one of the world's great beauties was also giving one of the best performances of her career. I can't help saying it: Nicole will win by a nose. Best actorShould win: Jack Nicholson, "About Schmidt" Will win: Daniel Day-Lewis, "Gangs of New York" After 12 nominations and three wins, Jack Nicholson may not need another Oscar to prove his lofty position in the Hollywood pecking order, but his performance as Warren Schmidt in Alexander Payne's "About Schmidt" is pure perfection. All those annoying Nicholson tricks, from his wiggling eyebrows to his cocky grin, are absent from this stripped-down performance as a retired insurance actuary drowning in his meaningless life. Just the fact that this 65-year-old lothario's love interest (his wife, played wonderfully by June Squibb) is age-appropriate, instead of some young babe in her 30s, is enough to get my vote.
An Oscar nomination should just be given out automatically whenever Daniel Day-Lewis commits to doing a film. He came out of a self-imposed retirement to play Bill "the Butcher" Cutting in Martin Scorsese's historical epic "Gangs Of New York," and, as usual, became the character, from the top of his domed forehead right down to his left -- and right -- foot. From his jarring, yet reportedly authentic (for the time) Brooklyn accent, to the fake glass eye (which moves but shouldn't), Day-Lewis' performance is technically perfect. He's the best thing in this over-cooked extravaganza, and odds are he'll go home with Oscar. Best supporting actressShould win: Kathy Bates, "About Schmidt" Will win: Catherine Zeta-Jones, "Chicago" Bates gives a heartfelt and daring performance as Roberta Hertzel, the soon-to-be in-law to Jack Nicholson's Warren Schmidt, in "About Schmidt." Already an Oscar winner for "Misery" (1990), Bates is the outrageous ying to Nicholson's repressed yang in this highly original and thoroughly entertaining film. This isn't her year and she probably won't get the Oscar, but she should get a medal of bravery for the hot-tub scene in which she gives her all for her art. There's no question Catherine Zeta-Jones earned her nomination for playing Velma Kelly in "Chicago," and she's already earned a slew of awards, including a SAG Award, a Golden Globe, and a Broadcast Film Critics Award. She's also a first-time nominee, and first-timers usually win in this category. If she doesn't make it up to the podium, it won't be for lack of trying: she's been campaigning like a trouper, despite her advanced pregnancy (she's due in April), and has done everything but open shopping centers in her quest for gold. Best supporting actor
Should win: Chris Cooper, "Adaptation" Will win: Christopher Walken, "Catch Me If You Can" This is the hardest category this year, and a case could be made for any of the five nominees. But Chris Cooper has my vote. After years of small roles, independent films and typecasting, this excellent character actor really grabs the screen with his performance as an orchid thief who takes a shine to an uptown, uptight novelist portrayed by Meryl Streep. "Adaptation" is highly unusual, yet mesmerizing -- and so is Cooper's performance. But it's Christopher Walken who won the SAG Award -- an Oscar bellwether -- and he's already got one Oscar, for best supporting actor in 1978's "The Deer Hunter." Walken has also been stereotyped to death in Hollywood, and this role as Leonardo DiCaprio's father in "Catch Me If You Can" gives him a well-earned departure from his usual villainous fare. If he does win the statuette, it will have been 24 years between awards. That's a long time to wait for matching bookends. Best directorShould win: Rob Marshall, "Chicago" Will win: Rob Marshall, "Chicago" The odds are in Rob Marshall's favor. There have only been five times in the 55-year history of the Directors Guild of America honors when the guild's best director honoree didn't go on to win the golden boy on Oscar night. Marshall's success with "Chicago" is the stuff that Hollywood legends are made of: He's a former Broadway chorus boy-turned choreographer-turned theater director who cracked the problem of how to bring this classic Bob Fosse musical to the big screen. He had the idea to see all of the musical numbers through the eyes of Roxie Hart, and the rest, as they say, is history. For a first-time film director, his cinematic eye is impeccable. He did what no one else could, and should be rewarded with the gold.
The sentimental favorite, however, is Martin Scorsese for "Gangs of New York." It took him 30 years to get the film to the screen, and this legendary maker of "Taxi Driver" and "Raging Bull" has never won the ultimate prize. Best pictureShould win: "Chicago" Will win: "Chicago" America needs escapism right now, and what better place than the cynical -- yet surprisingly feel-good -- streets of 1920s Chicago? If anyone can get a moviegoer's mind off the bleak reality of current affairs, it's Catherine Zeta-Jones and Renee Zellweger wearing thousands of beads and bangles while singing and dancing their hearts out to songs by John Kander and Fred Ebb. To find the last musical named best picture, you have to look back to 1968's "Oliver." If for some reason "Chicago" fails to grab the golden ring, "The Pianist" would be an excellent replacement.
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