Busy hurricane season predicted
Six to nine hurricanes in 2003
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A hurricane tracker airplane took this photograph of Hurricane Lili, the only hurricane to make a U.S. landfall in 2002. Forecasters are predicting a busy 2003 hurricane season.
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CNN's John Lisk says weather forecasters expect as many 20 named storms this season. (May 19)
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MIAMI, Florida (CNN) -- There is a "high likelihood" that this year's Atlantic hurricane season, which begins June 1, will be busier than usual, U.S. government forecasters said Monday.
Forecasters with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) are predicting 11 to 15 tropical storms over the season, said James R. Mahoney, deputy NOAA administrator. The season officially ends on November 30.
Six to nine of the storms are expected to become hurricanes, two to four of them "major hurricanes," reaching Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale, he said. Category 3 storms pack winds of 111 mph to 130 mph. Category 5 is highest on the scale, with winds exceeding 155 mph.
The average Atlantic hurricane season has 10 tropical storms, with six reaching hurricane strength and two hurricanes classified as major.
Mahoney said a number of factors could influence the number of storms this season -- including wind conditions and warmer waters in the Atlantic Ocean.
He said there was also a 70 percent chance of La Nina conditions -- unusually cold water in the Equatorial Pacific -- that could make the season even more active.
Mike Brown, director of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, urged people living near the East Coast to be prepared.
"Whether these predictions turn out to be true or not true, I can guarantee you that there will be some sort of tropical storm, there will be some sort of hurricane," Brown said. "If not those, there will be some major rain storms, there will be some flooding and to the extent that we can prepare the population for those kinds of incidents the better off all of us are."
The National Weather Service also will begin issuing five-day hurricane forecasts this year, replacing the three-day forecasts issued since 1964. The agency cited improvements in forecasting and increased need for longer-range forecasts in making the change.
According to NOAA, six of the last eight Atlantic hurricane seasons have had above normal activity, which forecasters said reflects an overall larger number of tropical storms and hurricanes observed since 1995.
The 2002 Atlantic hurricane season was a mild one, producing 12 named storms, of which four became hurricanes. Hurricane Lili was the only hurricane to make landfall in the United States, hitting the Louisiana coast in early October. Lili weakened considerably in the hours before coming ashore and did not cause widespread destruction.
Hurricane experts attributed the mildness of the 2002 season to the strengthening El Nino system, in which water warms in the Pacific Ocean off of South America, affecting weather around the world.
