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Hurricane expert: Season could be busy
ATLANTA, Georgia (CNN) -- As the 2003 Atlantic hurricane season began Sunday, forecasts called for more storms in the Atlantic than last year. Named storms are those with sustained winds of at least 39 mph. CNN anchor Anderson Cooper discussed the predictions with Stacy Stewart, a hurricane specialist with the National Weather Service in Miami, Florida. COOPER: Are you expecting an above-average active hurricane season this year? STEWART: That is what [the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration] is predicting. We may see possibly as many as 13 named storms. Of those 13 named storms, nine may become hurricanes, and of those nine hurricanes, we might see as many as four major hurricanes. COOPER: OK, you say 13 named storms. How does that compare to past seasons? STEWART: Well, the last couple of years we've actually been a little bit above average, but last year, even though we had 12 named storms, we only had four that became hurricanes and two that became major hurricanes. So, while the total number was up, the actual number of hurricanes was down. COOPER: Why do you think, at least in the named storms, it's going to be up this year? STEWART: Well, one of the things we're looking at is the modern El Nino that we had last year that tended to suppress the amount of hurricanes that we had form last year. That appears to have diminished and basically has gone away, and by the time we get into the heart of the hurricane season, we expect at least neutral conditions and possibly even a La Nina type condition, which will produce favorable upper-level winds across the tropical Atlantic, that tends to enhance hurricane activity. COOPER: And how does the La Nina do that? STEWART: Well, basically during an El Nino type situation, we have winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere, say up around 40,000 feet, that blow from west to east. Well, since most of our disturbances move off of Africa from east to west, that tends to just chop the tops right off of them and doesn't allow them to develop. In a La Nina type situation, the upper-level winds blow from east to west, in the same direction that the disturbances move off the coast of Africa, and that's very favorable to allow thunderstorms to remain around the center of circulation and continue to develop. COOPER: Do you have your names picked out? I mean, do you know what you're going to call the first storm? STEWART: Well, the first storm has actually already been named. That was back in April, and that was Tropical Storm Ana. It actually became a subtropical storm and then evolved into a tropical cyclone. But the next named storm will be Bill. COOPER: How are the names picked? We're looking at this list here, where we have a whole bunch of names already picked out. STEWART: Well, what we do is periodically, about every six years or so, we submit a list of names to the World Meteorological Organization in Geneva, Switzerland. They look it over. They sort of agree with it. The names are compiled from countries all around the United States, the Caribbean area, and once that list is agreed upon, that's pretty much it for the next six years. COOPER: All right, Stacy Stewart, appreciate you joining us. Thank you very much for the update. STEWART: You're welcome, Anderson.
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