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China toughens Iraq stance
Willy Wo-Lap Lam, CNN Senior China Analyst
HONG KONG, China (CNN) -- Beijing has hardened its stance on the Iraqi issue due to the growing perception that Washington's anti-Baghdad campaign is emblematic of a "neo-imperialism" that will also threaten China. This is despite the fact that the Chinese government is likely to abstain in the event of a vote at the U.N. Security Council that will authorize military action against the Saddam Hussein regime. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership's toughened stance on Iraq -- and on the administration of President George W. Bush -- is evident. Authorities have partially lifted a ban on student activities surrounding the Iraq issue, although they have turned down applications by student bodies in several Beijing-based universities to hold anti-war -- and anti-U.S. -- demonstrations. However, the two main official news agencies, Xinhua and China News Service, last week surprised observers by running stories about Iraq-related campus activities. Xinhua reported last Friday that around 40 Peking University students held a seminar entitled "Render support to peace: Avoid warfare." Moreover, Beijing did not stop a group of "new left" nationalists from starting a nationwide signature campaign that slams the U.S. for using force against Iraq. Since mid-February, nearly 1,000 intellectuals, including several well-known U.S. bashers, have put their names on an open letter entitled "No to War on Iraq." The statement condemned Washington for its plans to perpetrate the "hi-tech slaughter of defenseless Iraqi people." This development is deemed unusual given the anxiety with which the administration of out-going President Jiang Zemin has tried to prevent outspoken critics of the U.S. from making waves in public. More significantly, top cadres including CCP General Secretary Hu Jintao have called for an urgent revaluation of China's national security capabilities. One top priority of the reassessment by military, economic and energy-related departments is the country's ability to counter new -- and enhanced -- threats from the U.S. So what is behind Beijing's new hard line on America's Iraqi policy?
Petroleum, of course, is one key concern. The Iraqi crisis has highlighted Beijing's sense of vulnerability even as the central government is scrambling to build up a multi-billion dollar "strategic reserve." As a result of the precipitous rise in the price of crude, key sectors of the Chinese economy -- such as exports -- could be hurt badly this year. Senior officials have also decried perceived attempts by the U.S. to monopolize Middle East oil by attacking Iraq, a move that will impinge upon China's "economic security" and "petroleum security." Even more significantly, Beijing sees in the Bush administration's Iraqi gameplan a manifestation of growing "neo-imperialism" that will one day spell trouble for China. "The majority of the party leadership is convinced the Bush team is pursuing more than mere unilateralism," said a Chinese source close to the diplomatic establishment. "Beijing thinks Washington is out to dominate the world through targeting countries and governments that espouse different economic and political systems." A group of radical strategists has gone so far as labeling Bush-style unilateralism "neo-Nazism." According to an internally circulated paper on "neo-Nazism," Washington is seeking world domination through not so much conquering terrain as assuming control over vital resources and technologies ranging from petroleum to IT. And while Nazi Germany tried to exterminate so-called inferior races, Washington, according to this paper, is scheming to marginalize if not subjugate countries with alien cultures and institutions such as radical Islam or socialism.
While it is true that leaders such as Jiang and party chief Hu do not share this extreme view, they have in internal meetings expressed concern about Washington's "hegemonic expansionism" -- and its impact on China. A sense of vulnerability -- and defiance -- seemed to inform remarks made by Hu while meeting Cuban dictator Fidel Castro in Beijing last week. Hu said China and Cuba, being both socialist countries led by Communist parties, had "shared ideals and beliefs." "Irrespective of the changes in the international situation, our faith in the future of socialism will not be shaken," Hu said. "Our determination to go down a road of development that suits China's conditions will not change." Hu, who will shortly take over both the state presidency and the CCP Leading Group on Foreign Affairs, is expected to follow to some extent late patriarch Deng Xiaoping's foreign-policy doctrine of "never taking the lead." Thus, Beijing will continue to avoid head-on confrontation with the U.S. by merely seconding the Iraqi-related initiatives of France, Russia and Germany. Quite a number of diplomatic think-tank members have pointed out that it will be counter-productive for a relatively weak China to cross swords with the world's only superpower. And as both Jiang and Hu indicated while meeting U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell last week, Beijing saw international affairs through the prism of "long-term strategic perspectives on bilateral ties." In other words, the CCP leadership will, for the foreseeable future at least, not jeopardize trade and other links with the U.S. over the Iraq or North Korean issues. However, it is likely that compared with Jiang, who has been criticized for being "pro-U.S.," Hu and his advisers will opt for a more pro-active, even aggressive American policy. One indication could be speeded-up development of a world-class military arsenal. According to Chinese Academy of Social Sciences scholar Fang Ning, a strong army is the only guarantee that Beijing can deal with the U.S. on an equal footing. "Only if we have the means to counter invasion and to sabotage 'Iraq-style' [incursions] will China have [enough] safeguards that it can continue to exist with independence and autonomy," he said in an interview with the Chinese media.
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