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Trade, terror to dominate talks
Mark Hollands for CNN
(CNN) -- Terror and trade will dominate talks between 21 of the world's leaders when they gather at a potentially confrontational and historic Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum in Bangkok, Thailand, from October 19-21. Removing the impasse that caused the recent breakdown in World Trade Organization talks will be a key priority alongside the need to agree on the next steps in the war on terror. Preparations for APEC have been overshadowed by revelations that the terrorist group Jemaah Islamiah (JI) had planned a series of attacks in Asia simultaneously to the September 11 outrages in the United States. The recent arrest in central Thailand of JI mastermind Hambali, said to have been behind the Bali bombing that killed more than 200 locals and tourists last October 12, has also heightened the tension. APEC is the highest profile gathering where West meets Islam in the most open of forums. Government sources expect criticism of US policy towards Iraq and Israel's conduct against Palestinians to be voiced at the APEC forum, which is known for its solidarity and lack of conflict. It will be the last outing on the global stage for straight-talking Malaysia Prime Minister, Dr Mahathir Mohamed, 77, who will leave office after 22 years in power shortly after the forum ends. A day before APEC starts, Dr Mahathir will have ended his duties as host of the Organization of Islamic Countries, which holds its conference in Malaysia from October 16-18. As OIC president, Dr Mahathir may use APEC to issue a stinging rebuke of Western policy towards the Palestinian situation, Islamic countries and emerging economies. The recent criticism of US policy in Iraq by United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan and the Indonesia President, Megawati Sukarnoputri, may encourage Dr Mahathir to make a memorable exit from regional and world politics. "Politically, this is the biggest meeting that brings together the major nations of the West and Islam," said Richard Martin, managing director of the think-tank International Market Assessment Asia. "They do not meet in the Middle-East but in South-East Asia. "Dr Mahathir has been a reputable middleman between these two sides, but it is feasible he will take the opportunity to blast the West for its conduct over Iraq and Israel." The New Zealand ambassador to APEC, George Troup, said: "It is possible the Palestinian situation will come up. No one should assume it will be only the Islamic or secular states who will bring their concerns to the attention of the United States." More than Thai 10,000 police and security personnel, plus a 2,000-strong contingent from the US to protect George W. Bush, will watch over a series of meetings between national leaders as well as separate gatherings of trade, finance and foreign ministers, and chief executives. Mr Bush is expected to hold talks with the South Korean Prime Minister about the upcoming six-country negotiations with North Korea. The forum will give Mr Bush and the relatively new Chinese President, Hu Jintao, the opportunity to further their relationship and discuss the North Korean situation and WTO difficulties. Mr Hu and the Russian President, Vladimir Putin, will each have a state visit to Thailand, respectively before and after the APEC talks. Charged with trying to ensure a constructive pace to the APEC meeting will be the host, Thai Prime Minister, Thaksin Shinawatra, for whom this will be biggest event of his career. Regional analyst Charles Morrison said Thaksin faced a difficult few days. "Given the current situation with North Korea, the war on terror and the economic agenda, the US is less optimistic about APEC's influence," said Dr Morrison, president of the East-West Center, based in Hawaii. An Australian Government official said the outcome from APEC could be carefully engineered even though the gathering had a reputation for providing world leaders with a flexible agenda. A joint communiqué to be issued by APEC leaders would be more "media friendly" than previous statements, articulating two or three basic political goals. These are likely to be determination for the successful completion of the WTO's Doha round, commitment to improved counter-terrorism measures and economic structural reform. "There will be a lot of emphasis on what the leaders can announce," said Dr Morrison. "This will be a chance for the leaders to consolidate their relationships. The US President does not see Asian leaders very much. For him, having a sense of who they are is pretty important." Dr Stephanie Fahey, director of the Sydney-based Research Institute for Asia and the Pacific, expressed concern the APEC leaders would not discuss the toughest terrorism issues. "They need to start to look at the real cause of terrorism," she said. "People do not get angry for no reason. Heading down this path is confrontational for political leaders, but they have to deal with the causes not the symptoms of terrorism."
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