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Dark clouds over Israel election
By CNN's Jerrold Kessel
JERUSALEM (CNN) -- With a week to go before elections, Israel is under a dark cloud -- and the outcome of next Tuesday's vote may not clear the air. Under the country's election system, each voter casts a single ballot for a party list. And the leader of the party that commands the most support in parliament then forms a governing coalition -- with the leader becoming prime minister. Polls suggest Ariel Sharon will lead his Likud party to victory and remain Israel's prime minister. But promises by other parties could hamstring his coalition-building options. And that, in turn, could hamper Sharon's ability to carry out his policies -- leaving Israelis, most likely, without the stability they crave in an increasingly volatile Middle East. There seem to be only two likely outcomes in Tuesday's election: • The most likely: A hard-right narrow government with Sharon as its leader -- and left-most member. • The long-shot: A unity government under Labor -- but only if it pulls off a massive surprise and finishes close to Sharon's Likud. If neither of those scenarios occurs, then political chaos would ensue. The trouble with Israel's election system, according to experts, is that it's simply too perfect -- for the voters, that is. Virtually every vote under the proportional representation system actually does count. But it's often unworkable, simply because so many different parties are elected. Cobbling together a coalition can become a nightmare. For instance, Tomi Lapid, head of the centrist Shinui party --- which is showing surprising strength in the polls -- vows not to sit in government with the other king-making party, the ultra-religious Shas. Shas rabbis loathe the anti-religious Shinui and vow not to sit with Lapid -- though both would prefer Sharon to continue as prime minister. Sharon vows to form a broad unity government. But Labor leader Amram Mitzna vows that under no conditions will he lead his left-center party back into a government under Sharon. Many secular Israelis say they want a centrist coalition without the religious parties. But that seems politically unworkable.
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