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Q&A: Israel's 'curious' elections
JERUSALEM (CNN) -- As Israel prepares for elections on January 28, CNN's Jerrold Kessel looks at the background to the poll, and the likely outcome. Q. Remind us why the elections are taking place. A. The elections were originally due to take place in November, but they were brought forward because of the crisis which broke up Ariel Sharon's national unity government. The Labor Party put terms on Sharon, and he was not inclined to agree to them. He called elections, and in the interim formed a narrow government. Q. How do Israelis feel about the election, and what are the main issues? A. The majority of Israelis, and Sharon himself, do not really want this election. In normal circumstances, most Israelis rather like having to give direction, but this is a very curious election campaign. It seems that Israelis haven't yet grasped what it is about. At the beginning of the campaign it seemed obvious what it would be about -- relations with the Palestinians in war and peace, the borders of Israel and Palestine, and also the borders of corruption. But curiously it seems the elections are no longer about any of these things. On corruption, it is as if most of the electorate is saying: "Listen, this is not the time to discuss this. We are in the midst of an ongoing war with the Palestinians, a possible war with Iraq is looming, and this is not the time to make judgements on the big issues." So instead Israelis are asking the question: Who is the best man to shield us in these troubled times? But the corruption allegations against Sharon were very serious, and I believe that they are going to come back. The electorate just felt that now is not the time to deal with them. Having said that, however, there is enormous disenchantment even with Sharon, and that is reflected in the fact that 20 percent of the electorate is still undecided. That is an amazing figure, suggesting there are things going on which perhaps the polls aren't reflecting. And there has been a shift in support towards the real surprise of the campaign -- the Shinui party, which has no ideology beyond being anti-religious. They seem to be picking votes of the discontented, at the expense of the parties with strong ideologies. And here is another example -- there is a "green leaf" party, which wants to legalize cannabis. This time it is attracting quite a serious protest vote. I don't think it is because the voters are having a laugh -- it is a kind of protest vote, and many of those voting for this party are discontents from within Likud. And that says something about the despair and depression that seems to have engulfed Israel. In such dire circumstances there is a consensus that no-one has any real answers. Q. So what happens after the election? How difficult would it be for Sharon to form a coalition? A. If and when Sharon comes to put together a coaltion, he has an almost impossible task. Israel has absolute proportional representation. Some experts say it is a perfect system for the voters, because virtually every single vote counts. Others say it is so perfect that it is almost unworkable, because so many parties are elected. In the last three elections Israelis were given two votes -- one for the prime minister and one for a party. This time around they have gone back to the old system, to vote for a party list only, which assumes that people will vote for the big blocks, and not waste their votes. But because of the discontent, people seem to be going for the small parties, who now look like being the kingmakers. The centrist Shinui party, and its head Tomi Lapid, are showing surprising strength in the polls. Shinui cannot and will not sit with the religious parties, and they will not sit with it. Labour says it is not going into a unity government either. So Sharon may achieve a majority, but with the far-right, where he becomes the left marker. But he doesn't want to be held hostage by the hard right. So essentially Israel might find itself back at the position where it started -- and many people here are saying "what exactly is this election for?" It looks like chaos and instability at a time when the people are craving stablility. Q. Why does it seem voters rejected what Labor were offering? A. Well it does seem Israelis have rejected what was offered by the Labor leader Amram Mitzna. He was saying Israelis have to look reality in the face, get out of Gaza and eventually most of the West Bank, and split themselves from their Palestinian neighbours. But Israelis seem to have rejected the idea of solutions for now, and accepted the Sharon thesis, in which there is no room for immediate solutions. Instead they seem prepared to bite their knuckles and grimace for a long while. And so it seems for Israelis and Palestinians alike, there will be a continuation of the current situation, which is very grim. Q. What is the role of the U.S. in the elections? A. The most comforting image for many Israelis is of Sharon sitting alongside U.S. President George W. Bush, and this image is being used constantly by Likud. To many Israelis, this close relationship means Sharon is like a shield. Q. What about the economy? A. Well unemployment is around 10 percent, and people at every level are struggling -- from businessmen to the unemployed. And yet you go to the labor exchanges and the majority do not blame Sharon. They know he hasn't done right by the economy, but they do not believe that the government is the cause of their economic distress. And this is quite remarkable. The economy is in dire straits.
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