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Inside Politics
The Morning Grind / DayAhead

Where do we go from here?

From John Mercurio
CNN Political Unit

Sen. John Edwards has staked his campaign on winning South Carolina today. But if he does, encore prospects are foggy.
Sen. John Edwards has staked his campaign on winning South Carolina today. But if he does, encore prospects are foggy.

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DEMOCRATIC DELEGATES AT STAKE TUESDAY

Arizona:  55

Delaware:  15

Missouri:  74

New Mexico:  26

North Dakota:  14

Oklahoma:  40

South Carolina:  45

Total: 269

Needed to win: 2,161

When is your primary? For more key dates in the 2004 election season, see our special America Votes 2004 Election Calendar
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Morning Grind
America Votes 2004

ATLANTA, Georgia (CNN) -- Let's suppose John Edwards wins South Carolina today, as polls suggest he well might. Does the native-son-of-a-mill-worker draw any sort of bounce from this? More importantly, what does he do for an encore?

What about Howard Dean, who has done little since New Hampshire but whack John Kerry, pull his TV ads and lowball his own performance in today's vote? Where will Dean launch his second surge?

Five more states vote over the next week -- Michigan and Washington on Saturday, Maine on Sunday, and Tennessee and Virginia next Tuesday. If Edwards advances to the next round, the field is likely to break into two subgroups fighting very different battles: Edwards and Wesley Clark competing in Tennessee and Virginia, Dean and John Kerry in Michigan, Washington and Maine. (With all due respect, Joe Lieberman is no longer a factor, whether or not he quits tomorrow).

Edwards stays South

But for no one is the upcoming week more crucial than Edwards, who must build upon any bounce he draws from South Carolina with another series of "victories" next week. Notably, however, aides say he'll avoid a broad national strategy for now, building only on any regional strength he finds today before venturing North and West later this month. He's targeting nearby Tennessee and Virginia, while he virtually ignores Maine and Washington state and, possibly, Michigan.

"We're in Tennessee and Virginia, probably every day of the next week," one top Edwards aide told the Grind, noting plans to start running TV ads in those states as early as tomorrow. "We're not doing anything in Maine or Washington. Michigan remains to be seen."

Said another Edwards operative: "We could spend our time and money in Maine and Michigan, or we could make sure we get the delegates we need in Virginia and Tennessee and then battle it out in Wisconsin" on February 17.

Indeed, it's clear Edwards isn't banking on Michigan, a state he's visited just once and where he currently has few paid staffers. Mark Gaffney, the head of the state AFL-CIO, has spoken fondly of Edwards but has withheld an official endorsement. One state Democratic aide called the senator's presence there "pretty much non-existent."

Ditto, Maine.

Maine

Dotty Melanson, the state's Democratic chairwoman, told the Grind that Edwards is actually less organized in Maine than Dennis Kucinich. To be fair, Greens are huge in the Pine Tree State. Ralph Nader got 6 percent there in '00, and Kucinich has urged Green voters to become Democrats to vote on Sunday. Kucinich has visited Maine five times and will be back on caucus day. He is running TV ads in the state.

"This is the land of Dennis Kucinich," one state party strategist told the Grind.

Curiously, though, Edwards did spend about $40,000 on TV ads in Maine last week -- a small investment but notable considering he has spent nothing on TV in Tennessee and Virginia.

Washington

While Edwards does have fund-raising powerhouse Tracey Newman on board in Seattle, one operative described him as "staff-light" in Washington state, where Dean and Kerry have locked up big establishment support.

Kerry enjoys backing from Gov. Gary Locke, Sen. Maria Cantwell and five of the state's six Democratic congressmen. Ali Wade, the chief of staff to congressman Adam Smith, is Kerry's state director. (She's also wife of David Wade, Kerry's communications director). The delegation's sixth House Democrat, Jim McDermott, is backing Dean, who also has the support of state Democratic Chairman Paul Berendt and all four of the state's DNC members.

Virginia

While Edwards will likely focus on Virginia, and will surely note its proximity to his native North Carolina, Democrats there say the senator is struggling to expand his base beyond pockets of voters in the state's rural Southside region.

"It's pretty much a Kerry-Clark race here," said one of Virginia's top Democrats, noting that Clark has purchased a whopping 16 tables at the party's Jefferson-Jackson Dinner on Saturday, while Edwards and most other '04 Dems have bought only three or four.

Clark has 24 paid staffers on the ground right now and has headquarters in Richmond, Hampden Roads, Roanoke, Charlottesville and Northern Virginia. He's the only candidate on TV right now, having launched his ads in mid-January. As of January 31, Clark had spent $1.1 million on ads in Virginia.

Clark has hired Mo Elleithee, who ran the communications shop for Gov. Mark Warner in 2001 and ex-Sen. Chuck Robb in 2000; and Louise Ware, a state official and longtime Democratic organizer. He's also been endorsed by Mary Sue Terry, a former state attorney general and 1993 gubernatorial nominee; and L.F. Payne, a former congressman and 1997 candidate for lieutenant governor.

Tennessee

What about Tennessee? Edwards has beefed up his staff there in the past week and is expected to pour TV ads into the state tomorrow. Party leaders say he's already committed to travel to the state on three of the next six days.

If South Carolina goes as planned, Edwards will touch down tomorrow in Memphis for a morning rally. Tomorrow afternoon, he'll stop in Norfolk for an event before jetting up to New York to tape the "Top Ten List" for the Late Show with David Letterman and raise money. Edwards plans to campaign in Nashville on Thursday.

Still, early reports are that Clark could have the upper hand in the Volunteer State as well. He'll tour the state by bus tomorrow and Thursday (he'll hit Virginia by bus over the weekend) and is also the only '04 Dem who has run TV ads in the state, where he's spent nearly $1 million there by last week.

Stay tuned. We'll know much more about next week later tonight.


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