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The Morning Grind / DayAhead |
Howard's end?
By John Mercurio
CNN Political Unit
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One grassroot at a time? Howard Dean, here in Milwaukee on Sunday, could end up with a stage of his own and the funds to back it.
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WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Howard Dean may end his '04 presidential campaign this week. But Dean's "campaign" will probably continue far beyond Wisconsin, Super Tuesday and the Democratic national convention this summer. Maybe even past Election Day this fall.
Signs point to a post-Wisconsin withdrawal: Top aides, once giddy and shocked by their '03 success, now talk sullenly about life after Dean -- and, increasingly, about their willingness to work for John Kerry.
The first to go: National chairman Steve Grossman, who told the New York Times he'll "reach out" to Kerry if Dean doesn't win Wisconsin tomorrow. Grossman, who was chairman of Kerry's 1996 Senate race, said he'll do "anything and everything" to help him beat President Bush and to "build bridges with the Dean organization."
As Grossman notes, it's hard to see how Dean pulls it out in the Badger State, where we hear Gov. Jim Doyle has now committed to campaign with Kerry on Tuesday.
We're told a concession speech is being drafted in Burlington, where thousands of Deaniacs are ready to converge Wednesday for one last hurrah, the "meetup" to end all "meetups." There's no polling going on, no plans for new TV ads, no ... nothing.
Of course, all this defeatist talk contrasts sharply with Dean's weekend game face, including his declaration that "we're in no matter what" happens Tuesday. Dean dismissed an Associated Press report that, quoting Grossman, basically shoved him out of the race. "The confusion comes from people writing the stories that don't know what they're to talk about," Dean sniffed, referring to the AP wire story. "We're not dropping out after Tuesday, period."
After Sunday night's debate in Milwaukee, Dean rallied a crowd of young Deanies at Gaffrey's bar. There's been beer here, according to CNN's Claire Brinberg. People are excited. "No, we are not dropping out of the race after Wisconsin," Dean said as the crowd went wild. "We're in this for the long haul." (The debate: Polite with each other, Democrats target Bush)
But then there was this from Dean campaign chief Roy Neel, posted on the campaign's blog last night: "I just talked to Governor Dean a few minutes ago and can tell you unequivocally, that no decision has been made about the nature of our campaign after Wisconsin, that he is determined to go forward, keep fighting, to advance the message of this movement all the way, to defeat George Bush, to change American politics."
At first reading, Neel appears to be contradicting himself. On one hand, he claims that "no [post-Wisconsin] decision has been made." But without batting an eyelash, he adds that Dean "is determined to go forward, keep fighting, to advance the message of this movement."
The key word in that paragraph? "Movement."
In other words, Dean might leave the '04 Dem race, but he's not leaving you. So watch carefully this week, as Dean's campaign evolves from a bid for federal office, to a social and political cause designed to change America, one grassroot at a time.
Because "defeat" is in the eye of the beholder, we offer our educated prediction that Dean, soundly trounced in Wisconsin, will travel to Burlington on Wednesday to "announce" or "unveil" the "next phase" of "your campaign," a campaign to "take back your party" and "take back your country!"
Dean campaign officials tell the Grind that there's a large and growing chorus urging the governor to move on by creating an IRS-classified 527 or a 501(c)3 fund-raising committee, which would let Dean raise money and help congressional candidates, while offering him a separate platform from Kerry's presidential campaign.
"A lot of us want to see 'Dean for America' evolve into something more, something that helps more Democrats win elections based on the message we created," one top Dean strategist told the Grind. "The campaign has changed the party so much, and has really shown people what can be done if you inspire a movement of people. So a lot of us would like to see that organization continue. If it can't continue as a presidential campaign, we could still do some good for the party and for the country."
One other dynamic growing out of the dispersed camps of defeated Dems: Frustration with the compressed, front-loaded campaign schedule devised by Terry McAuliffe.
"People are frustrated, people are very frustrated. The people of Iowa, god bless them, decided this race for the rest of this country," one senior Dean aide told the Grind. "It was set up for someone to win Iowa and then win the whole damn thing. There was no time for anyone else to break through."
"We threw the special-interest charges at Kerry, but there was never an opportunity for the media to delve into that because they were too busy covering the 'momentum' story," another aide said. "As a result, we are going to have a candidate who's not been vetted by anyone and two months from now, we're going to go through a period of buyer's remorse."
"It gives Republicans the chance to define our nominee before our nominee has a chance to define himself," said a top strategist for Wesley Clark. "Usually, you get a fully fleshed-out profile of who the nominee is, and voters know who you are. This year, because of this calendar, voters are going to be learning about the Democratic nominee, after the primary is over. And so the [Democratic] message suffers."
And so it appears to end -- ironically, much the same way many early bettors said it would. Although, few saw the dramatic arc in the middle that changed the Democratic Party and turned a palpable anger into a real sense that Bush could be beaten this fall. That didn't exist before Howard Dean unveiled his "Democratic wing of the Democratic Party" last winter.
Where do Dean aides go next? Not quite Disney World, but close.
"If you'd asked me two weeks ago, I would have said 'No way, I'm in this because I want to elect the opposite of John Kerry," a Dean aide said. "Now, maybe. But really, I just want to take a vacation, sit on a beach and think about it for a while."
