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The Morning Grind / DayAhead |
If it's Tuesday ...
By John Mercurio
CNN Political Unit
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Forging ahead: Sen. John Kerry appears poised to win his 15th contest today in Wisconsin.
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Watch CNN-USA now: Live reports and updates track the results and impact of voting in the Wisconsin presidential primary. Join CNN's correspondents and analysts as they look toward Hawaii, Utah and Idaho -- the next campaign centers of activity.
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VIDEO
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CNN's Kelly Wallace on John Edwards' offensive.
CNN's Howard Kurtz on the John Kerry rumor and how it has been handled.
CNN's Judy Woodruff on Howard Dean's determined supporters.
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SPECIAL REPORT
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WASHINGTON (CNN) -- If it's Tuesday, it must be another big win for John Kerry, who's poised to cruise to victory in Wisconsin tonight. This morning, Kerry draws support from the 19-union, 5 million-member Alliance for Economic Justice, the trade-and-jobs wing of the AFL-CIO.
Dick Gephardt will join Kerry in Milwaukee for an 8 a.m. ET rally with the alliance. No word on whether Gephardt has summoned the strength to join Kerry in D.C. on Thursday, when the senator realizes Gephardt's lifelong dream of winning the full AFL's backing. Man, that's gotta hurt.
"It was the choice of our union leaders to stand behind John Kerry and his more than 19 years of public service to working men and women," Joe Hunt, head of the alliance and president of the Iron Workers Union, will say this morning in Milwaukee. "He has the character, the passion and the strength to fight for a better future for America's working families."
From Wisconsin, we'll look west for contests in Hawaii, Idaho and Utah on Tuesday and then head out for another national vote March 2, the decisive 10-state contest in big, meaty states like California, Ohio and New York, where a total of 1,151 delegates are at stake. You might know it as "Super Tuesday," but given that Kerry holds double-digit leads in all but two of these states (Minnesota and Howard Dean's native Vermont, where no polls have been conducted), we're not surprised to hear the phrase "Stupid Tuesday" circulating.
Howard's end?
But before we can even think about next week -- or next month for that matter -- we all must come to terms with the demise of Dean, which, despite his public claims to the contrary, still appears likely to play out this week. Perhaps as early as this evening.
Nonetheless, CNN's Sasha Johnson reports that Dean held a raucous election night eve rally at the Orpheum Theater in Madison. He came out on stage to the tune of "On Wisconsin," his jacket off, sleeves rolled up. He picked up a little girl wearing an IUPAT T-shirt and hugged her. The theater and the balcony were packed, people were standing in the aisles. There were about 50 people on stage with him.
This is the most energetic rally Dean has had in days. He was repeatedly interrupted with chants of "We want Dean! We want Dean!"
"Well, you'll have him tomorrow if you vote," Dean replied. More cheers, more applause.
For their part, Kerry aides say the senator hasn't spoken with Dean or his former national chairman, Steve Grossman, and has no plans to do so. For obvious reasons, the Kerry camp is distancing itself from the Dean meltdown.
Indeed, Sen. Ted Kennedy, campaigning with Kerry in Wisconsin yesterday, said he's hardly one to urge Dean to drop out. "As one that stayed in a long time myself in 1980, I'm not one to advise people get out early," Kennedy said. But "I think there is a sense of people coming together now behind the candidate, behind John Kerry, and I think that's happening. You feel it. But it's ultimately up to these candidates."
There's so much drama in Wisconsin today, we can barely sit still.
Kentucky House race
Nonetheless, we feel compelled to spend at least part of today focusing on a special House election in Kentucky to replace former Rep. Ernie Fletcher, who was elected governor last fall.
Democrat Ben Chandler, a former state attorney general who lost the '03 gubernatorial race to Fletcher, is heavily favored today over state Sen. Alice Forgy Kerr. The Louisville Courier-Journal, which endorsed Chandler on Sunday, said Kerr is "widely viewed as a nice person who has made little impact since being sent to Frankfort in 1998."
President Bush beat Al Gore in Kentucky's Lexington-based 6th District, 55 to 42 percent.
The last time Democrats won a GOP-held seat in a special election was 1991, so House Democrats want to roll out Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Bob Matsui in a big way. But it's hard to see how Dems can gain much traction from a Chandler victory, given how little attention the race has received from the national media.
There is a small presidential angle to the Kentucky House race, which could change the number of delegates needed to win the '04 Dem nomination. Currently, a candidate needs 2,161 delegates to clinch the nomination. But if he wins today, Chandler will become an unpledged "superdelegate" to the convention in Boston, pushing the number needed to win to 2,162. (If Chandler loses, the number will remain at 2,161).
If Chandler wins Fletcher's seat, there will be 205 Democrats and 228 Republicans in the House, 1 independent and one vacancy (the South Dakota seat of Bill Janklow).
