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The Morning Grind / DayAhead |
One more day, four more years?
By John Mercurio
CNN Political Unit
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 VIDEO |
 CNN's Bill Schneider on what happens if there is a split vote.
 CNN's Elaine Qujiano on the weekend's campaigning.
 CNN's Bob Franken on voters and values.
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NEW YORK (CNN) -- Sen. John Kerry and President Bush stump within minutes and miles of each other today in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, a final reminder on the final day of campaign 2004 of just how small this dead-heat race can feel.
Some call Wisconsin the new Ohio, which, of course, is the new Florida. But Bush and Kerry reassure us today that it's still a national campaign, traveling to a total of eight states (Bush is in six states; Kerry's in four) before they sleep tonight. (We'd list all eight states here, but surely you know them by heart by now.)
Celebrity campaign update: Bruce Springsteen joins Kerry in Cleveland, Ohio; Stevie Wonder joins the senator in Detroit, Michigan. Red Sox pitcher Curt Schilling introduces Bush in Ohio and Pennsylvania.
Sure to come up during Kerry's Wisconsin stop: The Packers' 28-14 victory over the Redskins yesterday, which, as you're sick of hearing by now, means you don't need to vote tomorrow, because Kerry has already won. (This, of course, because if the Redskins lose the last home game before Election Day, the incumbent party loses the White House. Been that way, we're told, since 1936.) John "Lambert Field" Kerry pumped his fists when told the score at one point during the game last night. "Well, as I said I thought the Red Sox curse erased everything. I'll take anything we can get," he said. "Sounds good to me."
One Packer player said after the game, "Don't have to vote now. Don't even have to go to the polls. Saved me a trip on Tuesday." (We hope he knows that's not true.)
The campaign that was(n't)
But you know what else has proven untrue this year? Most of the conventional wisdom and political tea leaves we've read surrounding this race. As we look back nostalgically at the campaign that was, we bring you a few examples of how much we thought we knew but didn't (provided with an able assist from Mark Barabak of the Los Angeles Times and Amy Walter of the Cook Report):
Aided by union support and Midwestern appeal, Rep. Dick Gephardt was heavily favored in the Iowa caucuses.Howard Dean -- remember him? -- would win the Democratic nod, we all said in late '03, because the candidate who raises the most money in the year leading up to an election invariably wins the nomination. And how about that Al Gore endorsement? Whew, what a coup. (This all, of course, after we predicted that Dean would be nothing more than an '04 asterisk.)Kerry, of course, forced to loan his campaign $6.4 million and plummeting in the New Hampshire polls, was dead in the water. (Kerry was thinking about how far he's come as well this weekend. The New York Times reports that Kerry put press secretary David Wade in a headlock while riding in a hotel elevator Saturday, knocked him in the back of the head and said, ''Not bad for 30 points down in New Hampshire, eh?'')The Democratic nominee will be buried in Republican dollars.The president's "Mission Accomplished" photo-op aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln in May '03 was a stroke of genius, we all said, and would be a ubiquitous reminder during the campaign of the administration's success story in Iraq.Kerry would choose a running mate who brings with him serious swing-state potential.Kerry's military record was unimpeachable and something that Republicans would make no effort to impugn.The first post-9/11 presidential race would feature far fewer negative campaign tactics, and the McCain-Feingold requirement that candidates personally say, "I approve this message," in TV ads would discourage negativity.Those negative campaigns drive down voter participation. (Not if these reports of five- and six-hour waits for early voting are any indication.)Incumbent presidents win re-election, or lose, by substantial margins. (This may ultimately be true, but it would mean that polls have been dramatically inaccurate. And we just know that couldn't be the case.)If the election isn't primarily about the economy and jobs, Kerry doesn't stand a chance.Another nugget of wisdom -- that Hawaii is a deep blue state. It very well may turn out to be, but none of us political smarties predicted that Vice President Dick Cheney would make a last-minute jaunt there two days before the election.Aloha, Cheney
From the Grind's Honolulu bureau, CNN's Matt Byrne reports that Cheney greeted a crowd of some 7,500 supporters last night at the Hawaii Convention Center during his two-hour stop in the 50th state. "I was in the neighborhood, and I thought I'd stop by and say aloha," Cheney said.
Upon touching down, on his fifth stop of the day, Cheney became the first candidate since Richard Nixon to campaign in Hawaii this close to an election. (Nixon did so in '60. He lost that race but won the state in his '72 re-election bid.) "We wouldn't be here if we didn't think we could win," Bush-Cheney spokeswoman Anne Womack told Byrne.
Plastic palm trees flanked the stage and fire and hula dancers warmed up the raucous crowd (message to the mainland TV viewers: We're in Hawaii). "If you guys don't behave, the president will never let me come back again," Cheney joked, in that way he has of chastising unruly supporters.
In his speech, Cheney evoked Pearl Harbor, referenced the suffering of the state's tourism industry after 9/11 and added a few lines about the importance of relations with Korea and Japan to his stump speech. But his main goal was to make a direct appeal to Hawaii's voters saying, "Some candidates may take Hawaii for granted -- President Bush and I take it seriously." Cheney went on to suggest that come Tuesday, "We're going to surprise a lot of people on the mainland."
This final marathon swing began Sunday morning with events in Ohio, Michigan, Iowa and New Mexico before arriving in Hawaii at 10:03 p.m. local time. Staying just under two hours on the ground in Hawaii, Cheney and his wife, Lynne, then headed directly to rallies in Colorado, Nevada and Wyoming, covering a total of eight states and 8,270 miles in just under 24 hours.
Kentucky Senate race
Also, few folks predicted that Bush would need to make a last-minute campaign appearance with Sen. Jim Bunning, R-Kentucky, but he did so last night.
Technically, Bush was campaigning in Cincinnati, Ohio, which shares a media market with northern Kentucky. But Bunning was more than happy to cross the river. His Democratic challenger, Dan Mongiardo, appeared last night with Illinois Senate candidate Barack Obama at a midnight rally at a Louisville union hall.
