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Battling to tip the balance

From the "Wolf Blitzer Reports" staff

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Wolf Blitzer Reports
America Votes 2004

NEW YORK (CNN) -- There are just 10 Senate races where party turnovers are considered possible, and just two where turnovers are considered likely.

In Illinois, Barak Obama, the keynote speaker at this year's Democratic Convention, is expected to defeat conservative activist Alan Keyes, taking over the seat currently held by Republican Peter Fitzgerald.

The other likely turnover is in Georgia, where Republican Johnny Isakson is expected to win the seat being vacated by Democrat Zell Miller, a conservative who's campaigning for President Bush.

In Alaska, Democrats are hoping Tony Knowles can defeat Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski.

"Murkowski has had significant problems over the past few months, establishing herself apart from her father, Gov. Frank Murkowski, who's not popular ... He appointed her to the office," says CNN political analyst Stuart Rothenberg.

Democrats also think they have a good shot at taking over for retiring Republicans in Colorado and Oklahoma.

Republicans, on the other hand, would dearly love to see John Thune unseat Democratic Minority Leader Tom Daschle in South Dakota.

"I have been a strong, strong supporter of John Thune, who has demonstrated bold leadership in the past for the citizens of South Dakota, who has very clearly spelled out the differences between he and his opponent Tom Daschle," says Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, R-Tennessee.

The GOP also has potential opportunities to take over open Democratic seats in Florida, Louisiana, North Carolina and South Carolina.

How will it end?

The best case scenario for Democrats: They win a Senate majority with as many as 52 senators and the support of Vermont Independent Jim Jeffords.

The best case scenario for Republicans: They retain and increase their majority with as many as 57 senators and force Democrats to seek a new minority leader to replace Daschle.


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