Forecasters predict warmer West, cooler South
By David Williams
CNN
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The northeastern United States experienced heavy snow in early December 2003.
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(CNN) -- Forecasters are predicting the possibility of wild weather for Northeast residents -- who saw record snowfalls in December -- and mild temperatures for Westerners in 2004.
Mark Hoekzema, chief meteorologist for WeatherBug.com, a Web site that connects more than 5,000 automated weather reporting stations, called it a "yo-yo pattern."
"I guess the unusual part is that at least the eastern part of the country will have average temperatures because of the back-and-forth weather, where you'll have a cold shot followed by some mild temperatures ... [in] sort of a yo-yo pattern," Hoekzema said. WeatherBug.com streams real-time weather information from more than 5,000 sites in the United States.
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In its final weather outlook for the season, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said there is an equal chance of above-, below- or near-normal temperatures and precipitation in the Northeast in January, February and March.
The projected forecast said variations in jet stream patterns are expected, which are "likely to continue bringing periods of storminess and swings of temperature extremes."
"... [W]e don't have a strong El Niño or La Nina happening in the Pacific," CNN meteorologist Rob Marciano said. "For that reason ... it's very difficult to nail down a solid forecast."
An El Niño is a disruption of the ocean and atmosphere system that happens when the tropical trade winds die down and a pool of warmer-than-average water forms in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. A La Nina is caused by cooler-than-average water. Both can have wide-ranging effects on global weather.
Heavy winter rain in California, normally a hallmark of El Niño, caused flooding in December 2003.
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"While ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific are warmer than long-term averages, and may even reach the level of a weak El Niño by late November, El Niño is not expected to exert a major influence on U.S. climate this winter," said Ed O'Lenic, senior meteorologist and lead forecaster at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center.
"Our forecast tools imply large uncertainty in the northern and eastern U.S., while a clearer picture emerges elsewhere," said O'Lenic.
NOAA predicts warmer-than-average conditions along the northern tier of the country – from Michigan to Washington – as well as in Oregon, California, Nevada and New Mexico.
Milder weather also is expected for the Rocky Mountain states and the central Great Plains.
Wetter-than-normal weather is expected for the Pacific Northwest and much of central and western Texas, while drier conditions are expected in the already drought-stricken Southwest, including Arizona, southeastern California and parts of New Mexico, Nevada and Utah, the NOAA predicts.
The NOAA also forecasted drier conditions were also expected in Nebraska, Kansas, eastern Iowa and northwest Missouri.
NOAA's forecast predicts that the drought will likely continue in many areas and could lead to "lingering, long-term water shortages."
Cooler temperatures are expected in the Southeast from eastern Texas through Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and the Carolinas. Northern and central Florida also are supposed to be cooler and drier than normal, with the drier conditions stretching into southern Georgia, Alabama and Mississippi, NOAA predicted.
The rest of the country has equal chances of above-, below or near-normal precipitation, NOAA said.
