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PLA revamps with eye on Taiwan

By China Analyst Willy Lam for CNN

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China's ground forces have traditionally been the focus of defense spending.
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(CNN) -- China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) is undergoing a radical restructuring and modernization to better prepare itself for a "military option" against Taiwan -- and in particular, the possibility of taking on the mighty U.S. forces.

A recently held meeting of the policy-setting Central Military Commission (CMC) has laid down instructions that the PLA must improve both hardware and software -- meaning weapons and organization -- to ensure that it can "win a regional warfare under hi-tech conditions."

A Beijing source familiar with PLA strategies said CMC Chairman Jiang Zemin warned at the session that the possibility of Beijing adopting a military solution to the Taiwan problem had increased -- and that China's "patriotic and combat-ready officers and soldiers must make themselves ready for at least limited engagement with U.S. firepower."

"One main point made by the CMC leadership is that, given the experience of the Korean and Vietnam Wars, it is unlikely U.S. forces would target mainland Chinese territory even if there were a full-blown war between China and Taiwan," the source said.

"However, the CMC warns that Washington would likely dispatch a number of aircraft-carrier strike groups (ACSG) to the Strait in aid of Taiwan -- in which case the country's national security will be severely jeopardized."

It is understood that a primary focus of arms development, as well as procurement of weapons and know-how from Russia and other countries, has been missiles and other weapons that could take out a U.S. aircraft carrier and other ACSG components.

Senior officers from China's vastly expanded Second Artillery Corp (or missiles forces division), have recently told the CMC leadership that both the range and precision of their missiles had improved to the extent they could be "effectively used against U.S. aircraft carriers and other naval vessels."

Another priority is constructing and importing submarines, deemed the weapon of choice should Beijing decide to opt for the "softer version of liberation warfare," for example, imposing a naval blockade of Taiwan.

U.S. military observers earlier this month reported that the PLA Navy had developed a new Yuan-class, diesel-fueled submarine, which has more advanced stealth and IT capacities.

The wonder sub is also equipped with more sophisticated missiles and other hardware, including those imported from, or developed with the help of, Russia.

According to Beijing-based Western military analysts, CMC Vice-Chairman Guo Boxiong put the finishing touches to a "new phase of military cooperation with Russia" during his low-profile visit to Moscow earlier this month.

Lobbying

While the official Chinese and Russia media merely reported that Guo and Russia's Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov had decided to hold a bilateral war game early next year, the Western analysts said Guo's major concern was securing a new generation of weaponry.

More discussion on arms purchase and co-production will take place when a gaggle of Russian top brass including Ivanov, Chief of General Staff General Anatoly Kvashnin and Air Force Commander General Anatoly Kornukov visit China later this year.

Internally, the CMC will focus on more thorough, real-time and IT-enabled integration among the PLA's four main divisions: ground forces, the navy, air force and missile corps.

While PLA headquarters units, including the CMC itself, have been dominated by veterans from the ground forces, budget allocations, particularly for the navy and air force, have increased dramatically in the past few years.

And acquisition of weapons and know-how from Russia, Israel and Europe has pretty much been focused on improving naval and air-force capacities.

Equally important, the Jiang-led CMC has succumbed to lobbying by the naval and air-force brass about raising the status of these two divisions.

Two highly qualified generals and strategists from the navy and air force -- respectively Vice-Admiral Wu Shengli and Lieutenant-General Xu Qiliang -- were earlier this month promoted Vice-Directors of the General Staff Department (GSD).

Mao remnants

Admiral Wu, 58, made an impression on his American hosts when he toured a unit of the U.S. Pacific Command last year. And General Xu -- at 54 a rising star within the top echelons -- has had experience serving in areas close to the Taiwan Strait.

This was the first time in recent memory that officers not from the ground forces were appointed to the GSD, deemed the PLA's brains.

And at the enlarged CMC meeting due to be called alongside the Fourth Plenary Session of the Communist Party Central Committee this (northern hemisphere) autumn, the commanders of the navy, air force and missiles forces -- respectively Admiral Shi Yunsheng, General Qiao Qingchen and General Yang Guoliang -- are tipped for induction to the CMC.

The membership of this supreme policy-making commission will then swell from 8 to 11.

More changes in both strategies and command-and-control structure are expected when President Hu Jintao -- currently the First CMC Vice-Chairman -- finally takes over the commander-in-chief position from ex-president Jiang in 2007.

The new generation of generals and military experts is expected to put more stress on an American-style, highly streamlined and centralized organization structure.

President Hu may also tackle the issue of abolishing either all or some of the seven military regions, which are seen by many Chinese and Western PLA specialists as a remnant of the Maoist era.


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