Jackson trial analysts look in crystal ball
Toobin, Bremner gaze at jury: What does deliberation time foretell?
The jury in the Michael Jackson child molestation case was still out on Wednesday. CNN senior legal analyst Jeffrey Toobin and criminal defense lawyer Anne Bremner take a peek at the jurors and talk to CNN's Bill Hemmer about what they see.
HEMMER: We're going to try to put on (the Johnny Carson character) Carnac the Magnificent's turban this morning, because none of us know what these jurors are talking about.
As a prosecutor, does the fact that the jury is entering Day Four portend good things for the state or not?
TOOBIN: Well, I'll tell you, if there had been a verdict already, that would be bad for the prosecution. A very quick deliberation in a case of this length and complexity, I think, would have clearly, almost certainly been acquittal.
HEMMER: Because they go inside and they say...
TOOBIN: Because they would have said that we don't buy any of this, they're not working their way through the charges. Here you have 10 counts, many of them very different from one another. The prosecution, I think, has at least a fighting chance by the fact that we are now into Day Four.
HEMMER: Anne, what does your turban tell you?
BREMNER: You know, a very quick (decision), of course, can be a "not guilty." But, then, guilty could come in when the jurors have deliberated a reasonable amount of time. But then it kind-of comes full circle when they go too long. Then you're looking back at a potential not guilty or a hung jury.
So, being (Jackson defense lawyer) Thomas Mesereau right now, I wouldn't be overly worried about how long they've been out and I'd be hoping they're staying out a lot longer.
HEMMER: Well, that's interesting. If we look back at celebrity cases, there's O.J. Simpson. Jurors deliberated for three hours, not guilty.
Scott Peterson, seven hours, 14 minutes, guilty. Robert Blake, nine days, not guilty.
Does this follow your thinking, Jeff?
TOOBIN: Roughly. I mean none of these rules is absolute. But, you know, some trial lawyers have a rough rule of thumb that says one day of deliberation for each week of trial. That would suggest a that 16-week trial, which this was, would be 16 days of deliberation. I think that's too long.
But I think a verdict late this week or early next week would be very much average for a trial of this length. I mean, you know, we're impatient. We want a verdict right away. But this is not a very long deliberation at this point.
HEMMER: Anne, you saw the jurors come out of court yesterday. Were you able to pick up anything when you tried to read their faces?
BREMNER: Yes, I kind of go back out there and watch them every day when they come out. But yesterday, there was a media throng. And juror No. 1 had a big cake. I don't know what that was all about. Maybe someone's birthday.
They looked serious, they looked purposeful and they looked straight ahead. One juror covered her face because there were so many people out back. But it seems that they came in the morning in jeans, casual, ready to work, not probably ready to deliver a verdict, because jurors tend to dress up a little bit more when they're going to deliver a verdict.
But they seem that they are definitely working hard and they have a purpose. Whether that's for the defense or for the prosecution, we're going to find out.
TOOBIN: You know, one crazy thing happened, though. One, the foreman threw a phone at one of the other jurors. No, I'm just making that up. I'm just trying to draw together all of our big legal stories.
HEMMER: This description that Anne gives us every day about this atmosphere outside the courthouse, I have to think that plays in some way into these jurors' minds.
TOOBIN: Oh, yes. They know what's going on.And also, what's been weird about this trial, at the beginning in the arraignment, when Michael danced on the hood, the top of the car, there were hundreds of people. Then during much of the trial there was hardly anyone there.
Then now, at summations, everybody came back. I mean they know what a big case this is. They know the attention. And I don't know which side that helps, but it's certainly a factor in their deliberations.
HEMMER: A yes or no answer, Anne. You said midweek a verdict.
Well, we're at midweek, right, Wednesday? You still going with that?
BREMNER: I still think so. I think they looked like they were ready to do something as of yesterday.
TOOBIN: It can't be today.
BREMNER: And we're hoping today.
TOOBIN: It can't be today.... because my son is graduating from sixth grade, so I'm busy today. So it can't be today.
BREMNER: I take it back.
TOOBIN: I think early next week, actually.
