China woos Taiwan non-separatists
Analysis: By Willy Lam for CNN
(CNN) -- An intriguing calm has settled on the Taiwan Strait as the Chinese Communist Party administration focuses on united-front tactics to woo non-separatist elements in the "breakaway province" of Taiwan.
Lien Chan, the leader of Taiwan's main opposition party, the Kuomintang (KMT, or Nationalists) met Chinese President Hu Jintao on April 29. Lien was born in the historic Chinese city of Xian.
"Our two parties were enemies in the past," Lien said after the meeting. "Everyone knows this history. But history is in the past. We can't change it. But the future is in our hands and offers many opportunities," he said.
After the Lien-Hu meeting, Taiwan's pro-independence President Chen Shui-bian said on Monday May 2: "Under the principles of democracy, peace and parity, the two sides can at any time begin to have contact, dialogue and negotiations."
James Soong, leader of another Taiwan opposition party, the People's First Party, is also due to meet President Hu in China this month.
Chen said he would send a personal message to Hu with Soong, but did not elaborate on what the message would contain.
So far, Beijing seems to have been partially successful in containing the damage done by the passage in March of its controversial Anti-Secession Law.
The law, which authorizes the People's Liberation Army to use force against Taiwan should the latter seek de jure independence, has buttressed the argument of Taiwan's President Chen that Beijing cannot be trusted -- and that more sophisticated weapons must be procured from the United States.
The law was used effectively by Washington and Tokyo when they lobbied the European Union not to lift the 16-year-old arms-export embargo on China.
The legislation also alienated ordinary Taiwanese, about half of whom voted for Chen, who is also Chairman of the separatist-leaning Democratic Progressive Party, during presidential elections last year.
However, local polls have repeatedly shown that the majority of Taiwanese, including a good proportion of Chen supporters, want to avoid war -- and to do more business -- with the fast-developing mainland.
The Hu leadership's dramatic shift to what analysts call a "smile offensive" has improved Beijing's standing among Taiwanese even as it has served to marginalize Chen.
President Hu, who doubles as head of the party's policy-setting Leading Group on Taiwan Affairs, is expected to woo Taiwan's powerful business community with promises of direct commercial links and preferential policies.
While President Chen has already indicated that his government will not recognize any agreements concluded by the opposition leaders, even his advisers recognize that most Taiwanese would support more commercial ties with China as well as some form of a peace accord.
Last month, business tycoon Shi Wen-long, a key DPP supporter -- as well as a big investor in the mainland -- shocked Chen when he announced his support for the "one China" policy.
Concessions
A source close to Beijing's Taiwan policymaking establishment said Hu might make significant concessions because of the party leadership's fear that Washington was boosting its "anti-China containment policy."
"The Hu leadership is nervous that in his second term, (President George W.) Bush may enhance the time-honored anti-China encirclement policy by consolidating military alliances with Asian allies and friends such as Japan, South Korea and Taiwan," the source said.
He added that Hu and his aides were disturbed that in February, Washington and Tokyo for the first time cited the Taiwan Strait as a "common strategic concern" for the two allies.
In any event, official media such as the Xinhua news agency billed Lien's trip as an "ice-breaking, historic breakthrough."
Chen, however, still has some cards to play in order to regain the initiative. In the past two to three years, the wily DPP leader has been able to use methods such as threatening to revise the Taiwan Constitution to provoke Beijing.
Hu is under constant pressure from hawkish elements in Beijing, including powerful PLA generals, to speed up the reunification process by employing tough, even quasi-military tactics.
That means the Chinese leader needs to strike a judicious balance in the Chinese Communist Party's time-honored carrot-and-stick approach to Taipei.
-- Willy Lam writes on China for CNN
