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Airbus flagship faces tough debut

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The Airbus A380 is set to star at Farnborough, but question marks remain over its long-term future.

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LONDON, England (CNN) -- With capacity for more than 800 passengers and an operational range of 15,000 kilometers, the Airbus A380 superjumbo has caught the imagination like no other aircraft since Concorde.

Early artist impressions showed passengers browsing in shops, sitting at cocktail bars or simply enjoying the extra space of the world's biggest-ever airliner. Jet set travel had never looked more glamorous.

When the first A380 was unveiled at Airbus' Toulouse headquarters in January 2005 French President Jacques Chirac declared the aircraft the "crowning achievement of a human and industrial adventure."

Yet, as the A380 prepares to make its airshow debut at Farnborough and just a few months short of the aircraft's first scheduled flights, there are already doubts over the long-term future of Airbus' flagship project.

Last month Airbus admitted production of the A380 was behind schedule and said many customers would have to wait longer than expected to take delivery of their orders.

Then Noel Forgeard, CEO of Airbus' parent company EADS, and Airbus CEO Gustav Humbert both quit amid revelations that Forgeard had sold shares in the European aerospace giant just weeks before the news was announced. Although Forgeard denied any wrongdoing the move prompted accusations of insider dealing.

Yet some industry experts believe that more fundamental issues than short-term delays and management difficulties threaten the success of the A380.

While Airbus has staked its future profits on the super-size hub-to-hub carrier, main rival Boeing believes the real market is for mid-range point-to-point aircraft such as its forthcoming Boeing 787 "Dreamliner," due to take to the skies in 2008.

Jim Smith, Editor of Jane's Transport Finance, says the early indications are that the Boeing philosophy -- with more than 400 firm orders already in place for the 787 -- is more in tune with the demands of the industry.

"It's an unusual situation where two major manufacturers of any product go to the market at such opposite ends of the spectrum. But what is happening is that Boeing is emerging as the winner," Smith told CNN.

Smith highlights Airbus' failure to secure any A380 sales to the U.S., where there is far greater demand for smaller aircraft than existing large planes such as the Boeing 747.

He said Airbus also faced political opposition in the U.S. where airports have shown reluctance to adapt their facilities for an aircraft used only by overseas carriers.

But Airbus Marketing Vice President Colin Stuart told CNN the company remained "100 percent" behind the A380, and said no orders for the plane had been cancelled despite production delays.

"We have a range of aircraft from the A330-200 to the A380, so we're offering those airplanes to the market to cover all types of needs in the international service area," said Stuart.

"Our market forecast indicated very strongly to us that there is a market for the current hub-to-hub services, which is between the major cities of the world. Our belief is that because the population of the world tends to be concentrated around those major cities they will continue to have a strong need for large aircraft.

"Customers want these airplanes because they want to fly flagship operations with an all-new airplane with tonnes of technological development onboard."

Aviation expert Peter Morrell, of Cranfield University in southern England, said he believed there was demand for an A380-sized carrier, but said Airbus faced a long wait before they began to see any return on their 10 billion euro ($13 billion) investment.

"There is a market for an A380-size aircraft but it may not be quite as large as Airbus was anticipating," Morrell told CNN. "And now the news coming out is not exactly encouraging to airlines who are sitting on the fence."

Yet Smith believes Airbus' concentration on developing the A380 may also have cost it dear in the mid-range market, by allowing Boeing to steal a march with the 787 on its own next generation A350, which is not due to reach the end of the production line until 2010 at the earliest.

"Based on Boeing's command of the mid-range aircraft sector, I'm not sure I would be quick to rush the A350 to market because so many orders have been placed for the 787," said Smith.

"I think what I would do is develop that aircraft and put it on the market in maybe five years. There's just a limited number of planes that are going to be sold. Airbus needs to develop a much more fuel-efficient offering than the 787 and then try to sell that down the line."

In an interview with CNN in 2004 Forgeard said he was prepared to take the fame or the blame for the A380.

Yet, as his pet project takes to the skies over southern England, Smith believes Airbus could yet be counting the cost of its former CEO's ambition.

"If I was in the driving seat at Airbus I would have to look at the A380 as something that possibly we were not going to make money on."

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