Greenfield: Democrats' burden in '06

Dreams of a Senate power shift may be premature

By Jeff Greenfield
CNN Senior Analyst

• Poll: Iraq driving down Bush's approval ratings

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NEW YORK (CNN) -- By every traditional standard -- historical patterns, the president's low approval ratings, current polls -- the Democrats ought to feel optimistic about taking back both houses of Congress.

Historically, the party that's held the White House for six years does badly in the midterms (Bill Clinton's Democrats being a notable exception in 1998, because of a booming economy and Republican overreaching on Monica Lewinsky).

Historically, a presidential approval rating under 50 percent means midterm losses for the president's party, and Bush is now wallowing somewhere in the low-to-mid 30s. (A CNN poll released Monday has him at 34 percent.) The most recent generic Congressional polls favor Democrats by margins as high as 17 percent.

But if you look more closely at the Senate, you'll find that Democratic optimism on that front may be premature.

Today there are 55 Republicans, 44 Democrats and one independent, who lines up with the Democrats. To take the Senate, the current analysis goes, Democrats need to win six seats.

Their targets include:

Pennsylvania, where anti-abortion Democrat Bob Casey now leads Sen. Rick Santorum.

Rhode Island, where maverick Republican Lincoln Chafee faces both a primary fight and a heavily Democratic electorate.

Montana, where Sen. Conrad Burns faces questions about ties to lobbyist-turned-felon Jack Abramoff.

Ohio, where Sen. Mike DeWine is burdened by a state Republican party tainted by scandals.

Democrats also are eying Missouri and Arizona to complete their six-pack.

But this math assumes that Democrats will hold all of their seats. And that may not be so easy.

Consider:

In New Jersey, which hasn't sent a Republican to the Senate in 34 years, Democrat Robert Menendez, appointed by now-Gov. Jon Corzine to fill Corzine's Senate seat, is trailing in the polls, behind Tom Kean Jr., son of a popular former liberal Republican governor. Gov. Corzine's early unpopularity brings to mind the 1990 Senate race, where the tax-raising policies of Gov. Jim Florio almost cost Sen. Bill Bradley a third term at the hands of future Gov. Christine Todd Whitman.

In Maryland, which hasn't elected a Republican to the Senate in 26 years, Lt. Gov. Michael Steele has a chance of running a very competitive race to replace retiring Democrat Paul Sarbanes, especially if a bruising Democratic primary fight between Rep. Ben Cardin and ex-NAACP chief Kweisi Mfume leaves the party split. (A footnote: In 2002, Maryland elected its first GOP governor since Spiro Agnew in 1966.)

Minnesota is a state a lot less blue than it once was: George W. Bush narrowly lost the state twice, and Republicans are unified behind Rep. Mark Kennedy against likely Democratic nominee Amy Klobuchar

One more point to keep in mind: Back in 1994, the Republicans took over the Senate by winning six open seats; they defeated only two Democratic incumbents. By contrast, only Tennessee provides an open Republican seat that can be considered competitive. Democrats this year need to unseat five incumbent Republicans -- generally, that's a much tougher task.

That's why the House of Representatives, with vulnerable Republican incumbents across the increasingly "blue" Northeast, may prove a better bet -- assuming, of course, you're foolish enough to bet on an election almost six months away.

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