Holiday travel: 'Take the car'

By John Helton
CNN

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(CNN) -- More travelers will be trying to get into fewer airline seats over the holidays, travel analysts said, and more might choose to drive to see family and friends.

"I think this is the first year we have seen for a while where there's been a true alternative (to flying)," said Dean Headley, a Wichita State University marketing professor who studies airline performance.

About 65 million people traveled over Thanksgiving last year and analysts predicted about a 2 percent increase this year. They'll be looking for seats on fewer planes -- major carriers have reduced their fleets and retired larger airliners and replaced them with smaller planes.

"Most travelers have about a five- or six-hour limit on car trips before they'll choose to fly," Headley said. But airfares are up over the last two years and gas prices are at a two-year low and that might be enough to make more people reconsider if the trip is better made by car.

Headley said the hectic, stressful atmosphere at airports is part of the equation, too.

"Everybody knows the holiday season is a difficult period to travel in," he said. "If they're going to have to invest an extra 45 minutes to an hour into their travel at both ends -- and maybe even longer if they get a canceled flight out of the deal -- that changes the window of what they see as acceptable to drive."

The available seat-miles rate, which measures airline capacity, was down 2.5 percent over the first seven months of 2006, according to the Department of Transportation's Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS).

Meanwhile, the passenger load factor, which measures how full airliners are, was up 2.8 points over 2005 to 80.4, the BTS reported. In July, the factor grew a point to 85 percent. Five years ago it was 66 percent.

"So now the price of flying has gone up noticeably, the seats are full because the airlines have cut capacity, so your chances of being bumped are higher," Headley said, "so you see the dynamic changing."

"We've got a great interstate system," he said. "Take the car."

Most travel by car

While most attention is focused on the nation's airports in the days around Thanksgiving, only 5 to 6 percent of people traveling over the holiday are doing it by air.

Most travel -- 91 percent -- during the Thanksgiving holiday is done by personal vehicle, according to the BTS. The largest part of that -- about 40 percent -- is on Thanksgiving Day and between 50 to 99 miles.

While Wednesday and Sunday of Thanksgiving week are the heaviest travel days for commercial transportation, more personal vehicle trips are made on Thursday, Friday and Saturday, according to the BTS.

AAA advises holiday drivers to not only plot a route but to also map out an alternate one to avoid construction areas and congestion that's sure to develop with all those cars on the road, said Mantill Williams, AAA's director of Washington public affairs.

Williams said most highway departments shut down big road projects for the holidays but there are still many areas where highway capacity is restricted because of work areas.

"Make a little bit of an adjustment -- it's a timing issue," Williams said. "Avoid peak times, especially where there is construction -- that can easily double or triple the time it takes.

"Making your trip a little earlier or a little later can make it a little bit easier," he said.

Mike Pina, AAA's public relations manager, said that he expects some people who shortened their summer vacation or didn't take one at all to be on the road at Thanksgiving. And a lot more parents are taking their kids out of school to make those trips, he said.

A recent AAA report said that 60 percent of parents surveyed by marketing firm YPB&R's 2006 National Leisure Travel Monitor said they would consider taking their child out of school to travel, up from 57 percent three years ago.

"A significant number of people taking their kids out of school are cutting out of here on Tuesday and coming back on the following Tuesday," Pina said. "Part of it is to avoid bad travel days, but people are looking for an opportunity to take advantage of lower prices during the fall and fewer crowds."

Combine vacation with holiday

Pina said a lot of those trips are combined with the holidays, like spending Thanksgiving in New York then taking a trip to New England, when rates are lower after fall color has peaked.

Travel analysts say bargains can be found during the holidays -- it's a matter of going where the crowds aren't.

"Rather than ask where your friends are going, ask yourself, 'where are people not going,' " said Jen Catto, senior editor for Travelocity.

"What's just ending? Fall foliage is just ending. What are the places that were hot in the fall that need your business now?" she said. "There's a real opportunity to take advantage of some of those bed and breakfasts and small inns that would have been really full a couple weeks ago."

Barbara Messing, a travel analyst for Hotwire, said that the weeks after Thanksgiving are a good time to travel to resorts before rates go up at Christmas.

"It's a great time to go," she said. "The resorts are geared up for the holiday but you just don't have crowds and you're paying half the price that you would a couple days later."

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Taxis wait in line to pick up returning travelers last Thanksgiving at LaGuardia Airport in New York.

Holiday travel: 'Take the car'

Most travel by car

Combine vacation with holiday

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