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Howard successor may have to waitAustralia's prime minister hits 10-year mark at top of pollsBy Grant Holloway  PM John Howard remains near the peak of his political powers. YOUR E-MAIL ALERTSSYDNEY, Australia (CNN) -- In late 1988, Liberal opposition leader John Howard was enduring some of the darkest days in his political career. A key opinion poll put support for his becoming prime minister at just 18 percent, and the respected Bulletin news magazine ran a full-page cover story of Howard headlined disparagingly: "Why does this man bother?" Switch to early 2006, and we find Howard celebrating 10 years as Australian prime minister and seemingly at the peak of his political powers. Howard is just the second leader in Australia's history of federation to reach the 10-year milestone. Only the founder of his center-right Liberal Party, Robert Menzies, notched up more time at the helm, serving 18 years before his retirement in 1966. An Australian newspaper poll published this week found Australian voters consider John Howard has done a better job than his four predecessors going back 34 years, according to the Reuters news service. As Australia's second-longest serving leader, the only questions now on Howard's future is when will he decide to step down, and who will succeed him? But if you want answers to those questions, don't ask the prime minister; Howard is consistently evasive on the issue, replying as he always does that he "will remain leader of the Liberal party as long as the party wants me to remain so." While that suggests the decision is not in his hands, so solid is Howard's support within the parliamentary party that any decision to stand down will be his alone. Whether that is before or after the next general election, likely to be held in late 2007, is a moot point. Many political observers suggest Howard will be likely to continue to ride on his popularity and attempt to lead his conservative coalition to a fifth consecutive election victory. "Howard finishes 2005 unrivaled as Liberal leader," political commentator Paul Kelly says. "The media impression for most of the past 12 months of Howard, an aging leader under threat from a new-generation successor, has been confounded," says Kelly, who is editor at large for national newspaper The Australian. A minority, however, suggest Howard may step down before then in order to allow a smooth transition to the party's heir apparent, the long-serving national Treasurer Peter Costello. What most agree on is that Costello does not have near the numbers in the party room to roll Howard and any coup bid would be disruptive and damaging to the coalition's chances in 2007. For his part, a physically fit Howard shows little sign of waning enthusiasm for the top job. This raises the prospect that an increasingly disgruntled Costello will resign the Treasury post and the parliament after he delivers his 10th Budget in May this year, leaving an open race to succeed the 66-year-old Howard. Among the possible candidates would be Health Minister Tony Abbott and former party leader and current Foreign Minister Alexander Downer. Of the long shots, Defense Minister Brendan Nelson and parliamentary secretary and former merchant banker Malcolm Turnbull are the most often mentioned. But while the contenders may be jockeying for position now, it may be a number of years yet before any one of them can claim the crown. 
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