Troubled times in Lebanon

(CNN) -- No less than nine dates have been put in the diary for politicians to pathe the way for a successor to departed Lebanese President Emile Lahoud.

The opposition party, led by Hezbollah, has missed every one on the basis that its participation in a parliamentary vote would give credence to a government it regards as "illegitimate and unconstitutional".

Both sides agree on who should be president: Army commander General Michel Suleiman. They just can't agree on the changes required to assign him to the post.

Economist Laura James from the Economist Intelligence Unit says the standoff over the role of president is part of a much bigger crisis that's been going on for one year between the government, backed by the parliamentary majority known as the March 14 coalition, and the opposition, led by Hezbollah.

"There are a lot of issues that they can't agree on; whether the government should be allied with the U.S., Saudi Arabia and France or whether it should be more a lined with Syria and Iran, whether Hezbollah should keep its weapons, whether the army should be in the south, what the attitude towards Israel should be and, economically, what the attitude should be towards economic reform".

Lebanon's Economy

Lebanon's economy has largely weathered the political unrest. The IMF recently estimated the country's economy will grow two to three percent this year.

The Economic Intelligence Unit takes a bleaker view. In 2008, it predicts ongoing political tension will see the country's economic growth slow marginally to 1.3 percent.

Laura James: "The Lebanese economy is supremely resilient, among all of the countries in the world it manages to survive under extremely difficult circumstances".

"That said, there is going to be a limit for how long it will go on. Lebanon at the moment is surviving on loans, on aid, on remittances from Lebanese abroad, but it is losing its tourism revenues which it was trying to use to boost its economy, it has massive public dept, which the government and the central bank is very good at servicing and rescheduling, but that kind of thing can't go on forever".

The grim forecasts are giving the Lebanon's youth more reason to seek a future elsewhere, contributing to the country's alarming "brain drain".

Sami Haddad, Lebanon's Minister of Economy and Trade says employers are under pressure to pay higher wages to convince skilled staff to stay.

"If it's a temporary phenomenon or not, only time will tell. If we're losing our best people it's bound to be negative and with very sad implications for the future", he said.

Lebanon's Brain Drain

MME's Schams Elwazer spoke to two brothers from Beirut, both graduates, who are planning to move abroad.

Salem is looking to ride the economic boom in the Gulf region, with a marketing job in Saudi Arabia.

His younger brother, Toufic, has graduated from medical college and wants to complete his residency in the United States.

Toufic says he fears being caught up in the violence if he remains at home.

When asked what his fear was, he said, "Fear that the war erupts suddenly, fear that while I'm going back home a bomb just blows and takes me away".

Clashes earlier this year between Sunni and Shia university students near his home in Beirut convinced him that it was time for change.

"This sent signals to me that the situation is not very good at all, that it may worsen at any time and there's no stability", Toufic said.

Lebanon: Bringing you up to date

How long has Lebanon been without a president?
The post has been empty since November 23 when President Emile Lahoud left office at the end of his term without an elected successor.

Why has the Presidential vote been delayed?
The opposition, led by Hezbollah, have refused to attend scheduled parliamentary sittings. The group says the current government, led by Prime Minister Fuad Saniora is "illegitimate and unconstitutional". To attend the parliamentary session would contradict its assertion that the government doesn't have the right to power. Hezbollah's deputy leader Sheik Naim Kassem has said: "This government is illegitimate and unconstitutional. It doesn't exist, so it can't rule and it can't exercise the role of the presidency."

Why the latest delay?
The opposition led by the Syrian-backed militant group Hezbollah did not show up for the Parliamentary session which left them without the necessary numbers for a vote. The 128-seat legislature needs a two-thirds quorum to begin voting for president. The majority has 68 members so relies on opposition parties to make up the numbers.

Don't both sides agree on who should be president?
Yes, both sides of politics believe the job should go to army commander General Michel Suleiman. However, Lebanon's constitution currently bars public servants from assuming the presidency within two years of leaving their posts. The constitution needs to be changed, but that can't happen without a parliamentary vote.

What does the international community say?
The U.S., EU and Middle Eastern countries have all urged Lebanon to end the impasse. After an international aid conference in December they released a statement saying: "We share deep concern at the prolonged political crisis in Lebanon. We reiterate our call for unconditional Lebanese presidential elections, without any further delay". U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has blamed Lebanon's neighbors Syria and its allies within Lebanon of blocking the vote. E-mail to a friend

All About Lebanon • Hezbollah • Michel Suleiman