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Schneider: The political calculations of immigration

By Bill Schneider
CNN Senior Political Analyst

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WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Do demonstrations like the ones we're seeing on Tuesday have much political impact?

Politicians look at these demonstrations and ask "how many of these people are voters who are likely to vote this issue? And how many people on the other side are voters likely to vote this issue?"

Politicians look at demonstrators demanding legalization and see voters. Maybe not voters right now, but future voters. Latinos who are voting right now tend to favor Democrats, and Democrats see Latinos as the key to an emerging Democratic majority. (Read your e-mail on the immigration debate)

All the Democrats running for president favor immigration reform that includes a path to citizenship for at least some illegal immigrants. (Watch the candidates stake their positions in the immigration debate )

Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-New York, has said she is in favor of comprehensive immigration reform and so has former Sen. John Edwards, D-North Carolina.

But they know there are voters on the other side outraged by the notion of amnesty. So, Democrats insist legalization must be earned.

Clinton has qualified her immigration reform opinion by saying that illegal immigrants need a "chance to pay a fine, pay back taxes, learn English and stand in line to be eligible for legal status in this country."

Edwards has said something similar. "These 11-23 million people should be able to earn a path to citizenship," Edwards said. "I would have some requirements which some people wouldn't agree with but I believe."

Republicans divided

Republican candidates are divided.

Four of the Republican candidates, Sen. Sam Brownback of Kansas, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, Sen. John McCain of Arizona and former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson, favor a legal path to citizenship -- as does President Bush.

But four other Republican candidates -- former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore and Reps. Duncan Hunter of California, Ron Paul of Texas, and Tom Tancredo of Colorado -- oppose creating a path to citizenship.

Two other GOP candidates -- former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney -- and one potential candidate, former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson -- have mixed positions. They're willing to consider legalization but insist that illegal immigrants should not be put ahead of those waiting for citizenship legally.

President Bush and his supporters don't want to see Republicans write off Latino voters. They face a torrent of criticism from conservatives and others infuriated by the prospect of amnesty for lawbreakers and perplexed that the president would make immigration a common cause with Democrats.

"I guess he could be congratulated for that," Tancredo said. "For changing the Congress from Republican to Democrat so he can get his immigration bill through."

Polling indicates that Americans who oppose amnesty are more likely to consider the issue extremely important and to vote the issue -- right now, particularly in the Republican primaries.

Which is why Republicans who support comprehensive reform have been sounding defensive.

McCain has pointed out the need to address the issue, saying, "We have to address 12 million here all illegally, [but at the] same time cannot give them amnesty, cannot reward illegal breaking of our laws."

Giuliani has said similar things: "They should have to pay a penalty because there should not be amnesty. It's a civil wrong. Civil wrongs are compensated by paying penalties."

Immigration is a divisive issue. People feel intensely on both sides. A politician who takes sides on a divisive issue risks losing votes.

So what do most politicians want to do? Change the subject.

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