Ducking debates isn't as risky as it used to be

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- With so many debates scheduled, can candidates get away with not showing up? It depends on whether voters see a pattern.

Democrats have held seven major debates already this year. Republicans have held five. At least 13 more Democratic debates and 10 more Republican debates have been scheduled.

"As debates multiply and more and more groups ask to be part of the debates, candidates can decline them with less political risk," said Stephen Hess, senior scholar at the Brookings Institution.

Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois declined an invitation to participate in a Democratic debate in Iowa this week, co-sponsored by the AARP. Can he get away with that? Senior citizens are an important constituency. Iowa is an important state.

"The downside is probably a maximum 24 hours of bad news," Hess said.

Obama has said he intends to limit his participation in these events so he can spend more time talking directly to voters. He also said he has been to Iowa many times and will be there many more times.

The risk was greater for former Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee when he skipped a debate co-sponsored by the New Hampshire Republican Party and instead went on "The Tonight Show With Jay Leno" to announce he was running. Watch the impact of a debate no-show »

"One thing I know about New Hampshire, and I know well, is that the people of New Hampshire expect to see you,'' Sen. John McCain of Arizona, a GOP rival said. "They expect to see you a lot."

What does it mean when a whole group of candidates fails to show up?

"When eight candidates stand together in one position, it usually means a lot more'' than when one or two candidates take a pass, Hess said.

When the Democratic candidates refused to show up at debates co-sponsored by Fox News this year, they were making a statement about Fox News.

Only one Republican candidate showed up at an NAACP forum in Detroit, Michigan. Was that a statement? "Do you think we should wait a few minutes and see if these other guys show up?" Rep. Tom Tancredo of Colorado asked at the forum, where he stood surrounded by empty podiums.

McCain was the only major Republican candidate to accept a debate invitation from Univision, the Spanish-language network.

All the major Republican candidates have turned down an invitation to participate in a forum next week hosted by Tavis Smiley to discuss minority issues. The candidates claim they have scheduling conflicts.

"Baloney,'' former House Speaker Newt Gingrich told The Washington Post. "For Republicans to consistently refuse to engage in front of an African-American or Latino audience is an enormous error."

President Bush agreed.

"My advice to whoever will be our nominee is to reach out to the African-American community, as well as other communities," Bush said. "I believe that we've got a very strong record."

Barry Goldwater once advised his fellow Republicans that, since they were not likely to get many black votes, "We ought to go hunting where the ducks are."

Candidates may be concerned about becoming targets themselves if they show up at what they consider unfriendly forums. They risk having to answer difficult questions, making commitments that may be hard to keep or drawing a hostile response that will show up on news broadcasts.

On the other hand, if voters see a pattern of nonparticipation, they could read it as a statement: that the candidates are indifferent to the groups' concerns. And willing to write off their votes.

Statements such as that may offend a lot of voters, not just members of the group sponsoring the event. E-mail to a friend

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