Retirements beginning to put House out of GOP's grasp

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- The Democratic majority in the House of Representatives should be very vulnerable. But it's not -- at least, not right now.

Speaker Nancy Pelosi's hold on the gavel is pretty slim. Republicans need 17 more seats to retake the majority. In 2006, Democrats gained 30.

When a party wins a big victory in Congress -- as the Democrats did in 2006 -- they usually have trouble holding those gains at the next election. Right now, for example, Democrats hold 61 House seats in districts that voted for President Bush in 2004.

Republicans have only 8 representatives from districts that voted for John Kerry.

So it looks like Democrats have a lot more vulnerable seats to defend in the 2008 elections. But analysts say otherwise.

"A lot of those members are veteran, long-time Democrats who have been in those seats and they are not vulnerable," said Lauren Whittington, a senior staff writer at the Capitol Hill newspaper Roll Call. "You know, people who are in Republican states but who have been there for 20 years, 30 years, and they have seniority.''

Those Democrats include Rep. Ike Skelton of Missouri, whose district voted 64 percent for Bush. He's the powerful chairman of the House Armed Services Committee with more than 30 years of seniority.

Democrat Rep. John Spratt of South Carolina is another example. He's a 25-year veteran and chairman of the House Budget Committee. His district voted 57 percent for Bush.

Republicans may actually have a larger number of vulnerable House seats to defend next year.

So far this year, 12 Republican representatives have announced they are not running for re-election next year, either because they are retiring or they are running for another office.

One reason the Republicans are leaving is because it's no fun to be in the minority in the House. The minority party in the Senate has some power. The minority party in the House is powerless.

Some big-name Republicans are leaving, including former Speaker Dennis Hastert of Illinois and Rep. Deborah Pryce of Ohio, who said when she announced her retirement in August "there is no perfect time, no good time to leave a job you really love."

Her seat is No. 1 on the list of Democratic targets, and "Republicans don't even have a candidate there right now," Roll Call's Whittington said.

Rep. Jim Ramstad, R-Minnesota, said "I'm burned out. I'm tired," when he announced he was leaving in September, but Minority Leader John Boehner has been trying to get Ramstad to reconsider his decision, the Minneapolis-St. Paul Star Tribune reported earlier this month

"The party knows how much money they're going to have to spend" to defend Ramstad's district, Whittington said.

Six of the 12 Republican seats where the incumbent is not running for re-election are in districts that either voted for Kerry or went for Bush by less than 10 points.

Just two Democratic House members are not running. Both are in districts that Kerry carried by more than 10 points.

All those open seats are a big problem for Republicans. In 2006, open House seats were four times as likely to switch parties than seats where an incumbent was seeking re-election.

It costs money to defend those seats. Money Republicans don't have.

"The House Republican campaign committee only has very little money, about $2 million in the bank," Whittington said. "Democrats have a little more than 10 times that. So, money is a huge issue.'' E-mail to a friend

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