England playing Russian roulette

(CNN) -- So you didn't see it coming? But the writing was on the wall... England were struggling to hold onto their lead against Russia and it was a matter of time before they conceded a goal and let qualification for Euro 2008 slip between their fingers.

Steve McClaren can blame the referee for awarding a penalty when Wayne Rooney's foul on Konstantin Zurianov happened outside the area, but that is hardly the reason why England fell at Luzhniki Stadium and why they could miss out on next year's tournament. It happened because the manager didn't know how to hold on to his lead on Wednesday, and because England dropped points against Macedonia.

Let's start with the match at the Luzhniki Stadium.

It was a definite blow to the side that both Ashley Cole and John Terry were injured. But while Sol Campbell's inclusion was an obvious choice, the decision to use Joleon Lescott at left back was an erroneous one. Nicky Shorey has played well when called upon and he is a natural in that position.

Additionally, Gareth Barry could have been dropped back with Frank Lampard taking his position in central midfield.

Even if England fans accept McClaren's decision to go with Lescott, they should not ignore the manager's failure to counter Guus Hiddink's tactical changes in the second half. Joe Cole and Shaun Wright-Phillips were largely ineffectual and should have been adjusted on the pitch to balance the side.

When they were still winning 1-0, it would have been a good idea to take off one of the forwards (Michael Owen would have been the obvious choice) and put on Frank Lampard to solidify midfield.

Russia were gaining ground and momentum, and Barry and Steven Gerrard were struggling to cope. By sending on Lampard, England would have gained another expert passer in the center of the park, and could have pushed Wright-Phillips and Cole wider to link up with Rooney in a 4-3-3 formation.

Still, nothing was done, and McClaren watched helplessly as Russia turned the game around on its head. When he sent on Peter Crouch, Lampard and Stuart Downing, it was just too late.

The defeat in Moscow, along with the setback in Zagreb, has left England facing the prospect of missing the final stage of a major tournament for the first time since 1994. But one shouldn't forget the draw against Macedonia. Those points dropped could make all the difference.

Now all England can do is hope Russia drops points in Israel. That's the only way they can still dream of making a trip to Austria and Switzerland next summer. E-mail to a friend