Analysis: Kosovo on a knife edge

PRISTINA, Kosovo (CNN) -- On the Serb side there is a mixture of defiance and resignation. They say Albanians are just talking about independence but that in the end they will never get it.

They point to the fact this was the day they were supposed to announce a date for independence and yet it appears that, at least for the time being, the declaration is being postponed until possibly early next year.

But they are also resigned to the fact that a majority of this province is now off limits to them, that Belgrade hasn't really exercised any authority here since its forces left after the NATO bombing campaign in 1999.

All they can hope for is to maintain the areas left to them, mainly in the north and around Orthodox religious sites, which today are protected by soldiers of NATO's international peacekeeping force, K-FOR.

On the Albanian side people keep telling me that it is not a matter of "if" but "when," that they have been waiting for so long that a few more months won't make a difference

They know that the U.S. and most of the European Union countries are behind them, and although a small minority is pushing for an immediate and unconditional declaration of independence, Kosovo's political leadership hinted that they will do so in coordination with the international community.

Extremists on both sides of course try to take advantage of the fact that European nations are not united on what to do about Kosovo, while the issue of independence has become yet another issue of contention between the U.S., who favor independence, and Russia who stands behind their fellow Serb Slavs.

Could there be violence? Yes, of course. In this part of the world it remains a possibility.

The two sides simply don't trust each other and they don't really have any interest in living side-by-side. There is virtually no or little interaction between them, and those who do talk to each other are an exception.

The scars of war are not just psychological but also visible throughout Kosovo. Though most homes have been rebuilt, there are many that are still damaged or destroyed.

Those belonging to people who fled and don't plan to come back can be recognized because a phone number has been sprayed on the walls in case someone is interested in buying it.

Violent clashes between the two sides erupted in March 2004, which left dozens dead and more than 600 wounded.

If Kosovo declares its independence unilaterally there is potential for more clashes although both sides say they want to avoid them.

Extremists could however take the opportunity to stir up trouble.

On the Albanian side, by those who feel that the "supervised independence" proposed by the U.N. special envoy for Kosovo is not enough. On the Serb side, nationalists not just in Kosovo but also in Serbia proper would not miss the opportunity to make their dissatisfaction heard.

They represent a minority, but in both cases all they need to do is to ignite a spark that could easily degenerate into a province-wide violence and, if you believe the Russian foreign minister, into chaos in the rest of the region and other parts of the world.

But violence this time won't serve either side. Kosovo would see its dream of becoming a state slipping away only months before a formal declaration of independence.

Serbia's pro-Western government has no intention to become again a pariah state, isolated and ostracized by the rest of Western Europe.

And the irony in this attempt to redraw yet again the map of the Balkans, is that both Serbia and Kosovo hope one day to join the European Union, a place where borders no longer matter. E-mail to a friend

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