Violence echoes of 'horrific' past

BEIRUT, Lebanon (CNN) -- The first big shock for Lebanon was the assassination in early 2005 of the former prime minister, Rafiq al-Hariri, in a massive daytime explosion on the seafront on Beirut's famed corniche.

After that, despite a series of explosions and assassinations, Lebanon seemed to be getting back on track. There was almost a spirit of optimism among some Lebanese people about the withdrawal of the Syrian forces.

There was a sense that financial investments were now going to pour in. Lebanon before the war last summer between Hezbollah and Israel, was expecting a record summer tourist season. There was record investment in the real estate sector and the development sector, notably in the rebuilt up-scale seafront portion of the downtown area.

That was shattered by the summer war between Israel and Hezbollah.

There was massive destruction on Lebanese infrastructure by Israeli air-power. The conflict destroyed the economy. The destroyed tourist season shattered investor confidence in Lebanon.

When the war was over, rebuilding and regaining confidence from the international community was overshadowed when Lebanon was suddenly flung into its own domestic-political crises.

Six pro-Syria ministers resigned from the cabinet, five of them Shia Muslims. The opposition, lead by Hezbollah, said, since the Shia ministers were no longer representing the government, the government was no longer constitutional, citing a pact of national co-existence -- consensual democracy -- upon which today's Lebanese politics are founded.

Lebanon's western backed prime minister, Fouad Siniora, refused that suggestion and stayed in power, holding his position and refusing to resign. His decision sparked a series of massive protests.

Opposition protesters set up camp in the capital, terrorizing the heart of Beirut, just within shouting distance of the prime minister's office complex, which was separated from the protesters by massive coils of barbed wire, huge concrete blocks and army personnel carriers.

The tensions rolled over into the streets a few months ago. There were scenes horrific to many Lebanese who remember the civil war street fighting all too well.

There were scenes of confrontations in the streets between Sunnis and Shias, a number of people were killed by gunfire, there were armed men on rooftops and of course the Lebanese were extremely concerned by what they were seeing.

Then the violence appeared to have calmed down for a while, and now you have this eruption of violence again.

All of a sudden, Siniora finds himself battling a Sunni Muslim foe, albeit a militant Sunni fundamentalist foe. And so Lebanon's troubles has now been focused on the alternative problem of Sunni fundamentalism linked to al-Qaeda.

In the last few months there has been warning, notably from the United Nations interim force in Lebanon, that arms were being distributed to Sunni fundamentalist groups and that the real threat to Lebanon's security -- the most acute threat to Lebanon's security -- lay in the threat of Sunni fundamentalism and that appears to be what we are seeing now.

For the Lebanese people the fear is that the country may well be slipping back into uncontrollable violence which it has not seen since the country's civil war.

And certainly for many Lebanese it is a terrible shock because a number of Lebanese in the younger generation had adopted the "never again" attitude -- we won't allow it to happen again -- yet things appear to be out of their hands. And I am sure that is very distressing for them. E-mail to a friend

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