Analysis: Toronto film fest could offer surprises

(CNN) -- A mere film festival cannot compete with the Academy Awards' grip on the public imagination, but the 33rd Toronto International Film Festival (which begins Thursday) comes pretty close -- in part because it has become the first important bellwether for the onslaught of Oscar hopefuls.

Last year's bumper crop of contenders included "Into the Wild," "In the Valley of Elah," "Atonement," "I'm Not There," "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford" and the eventual best picture winner, "No Country For Old Men." After 10 days in Toronto, it was obvious that 2007 would go down as an exceptionally strong year for American film.

According to pre-festival buzz, 2008 will struggle to match it. The studio specialty divisions that produced many of last year's quality pictures -- including Paramount Vantage, which co-produced "No Country For Old Men" and "There Will Be Blood" -- have been cut back or eliminated entirely, incorporated into their corporate parents.

And American movies mostly have been absent from this month's Venice and Telluride film festivals amid whispers that Hollywood's submissions just weren't up to grade.

For better or (frequently) worse, the Toronto festival prefers to operate a more open-door policy with the studios, which at least guarantees glamour-starved Canadians a steady stream of celebrities trotting down the red carpet. More than 500 are expected this year, including Brad Pitt, Jennifer Aniston, Dakota Fanning, Jeanne Moreau, Ricky Gervais and Charlize Theron. (Pitt and Aniston will not be together.)

Hot tickets -- and at nearly $40 for gala screenings, they better be -- include the Coen brothers' latest, "Burn After Reading," which also screened in Venice; Spike Lee's World War II drama, "Miracle of St. Anna"; and new films from Jonathan Demme, Darren Aronofsky and Richard Linklater.

Toronto also will provide North Americans their first chance to see many of the most talked-about films from May's Cannes International Film Festival, including Steven Soderbergh's two-part epic "Che," brothers Luc and Jean-Pierre Dardenne's "Silence de Lorna" and Terence Davies' highly praised "Of Time and the City."

With a lineup of 249 features from 64 countries, there can be no shortage of potential, and talk is enthusiastic about a number of films.

"Borat" director Larry Charles is back with a satirical documentary fronted by Bill Maher, "Religulous," which threatens -- or promises -- to put a cat among the doves.

There are hopes Ed Harris can pull off a grand Western in the old style with his film of the Robert Parker novel "Appaloosa." A cast headed by Viggo Mortensen, Jeremy Irons, Renee Zellweger and Harris himself certainly makes the prospect appetizing.

Last year's spate of Iraq-themed pictures failed to ignite the box office, but Kathryn Bigelow's bomb-disposal thriller, "The Hurt Locker" (with Jeremy Renner, Ralph Fiennes and Guy Pearce), could be the first to buck the trend. According to Toronto Eye critic Jason Anderson, this one has "real breakout potential."

Meanwhile, Telluride reviews for Danny Boyle's true-life fairy tale, "Slumdog Millionaire," have been little short of ecstatic. Can a movie really be both "Dickensian" and "a blast," as Variety proclaims?

Here's hoping. Watch this space -- I'll be reporting back this time next week.

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