Don't wait to shop for summer flights

(CNN) -- See an affordable domestic airfare? Book it now.

Travelers will see more price hikes for summer as the airlines struggle with staggering jet fuel costs, say airline analysts.

"I expect to see at least two more price increases before the end of May," said Rick Seaney, CEO of FareCompare.com, a consumer airline ticket research Web site.

So far this year, 11 of 15 attempted domestic fare hikes have been widely adopted, setting the pace for just under 40 increases for 2008. Major carriers attempted 23 increases in 2007, and 17 of those were matched by all six major legacy airlines, according to Seaney.

Last May, a ticket purchased seven days in advance between Denver, Colorado and Raleigh, North Carolina was $258. This May that same ticket sells for about $460, according to FareCompare.

Fare hikes only stick in competitive markets when all the carriers adopt the increase. The latest hike, initiated by Delta on May 8, added a $20 roundtrip fuel surcharge to the price of tickets.

Planes are increasingly full as airlines gradually trim capacity, giving airlines no incentive to discount summer travel.

"It's simple supply and demand. As long as they keep the planes completely full they can continue to drive up prices -- to a point," Seaney said. "At some point travelers begin to push back on pricing, and I'm not sure we've reached that point yet, but it's getting close."

The top 10 airlines are paying $23 billion more for fuel than they paid last year, while they earned only $3.8 billion, according to Vaughn Cordle, chief analyst for AirlineForecasts, a consulting company in Washington.

"So just to break even on this gap up in fuel costs these airlines have to raise fares on average, across the board, 20 percent," Cordle said.

Cordle suggests airlines need to cut capacity by at least 15 percent by cutting flights and grounding planes to make higher prices stick systemwide, but he says carriers are reluctant to make those kind of capacity cuts right now, hoping that fuel prices will come down and the economy will pick up.

Price hikes will always hit certain markets harder than others. Increases stick much longer in very small cities where there's no competition to drive prices back down. Large cities with competition from low-cost carriers ultimately see less dramatic increases.

Getting the best fares

Regardless of higher fares, there still are shopping strategies for getting better deals.

The airlines know that travelers tend to book 30 to 40 days out, Seaney said, so travelers have to shop earlier than that to find better prices. Start looking about three or four months before your desired travel dates, Seaney advises. You don't necessarily have to buy at that point, but keep an eye on prices to get an idea of what you should expect to pay. Looking at three or four sites over a couple of days won't get you the results you want anymore.

Start early, but not too early, Seaney cautioned. Many seniors with few scheduling restrictions buy their tickets too soon, before the airlines have started managing their revenue.

"Starting at about four months the airlines actually start to manage their planes and how full they are and that's when they start to discount and actually allow some of the lower priced tickets to come out," he said.

You're also likely to hit at least one of the two or three sales per year that apply to days more desirable than the Tuesday-Wednesday-Saturday sales the airlines promote constantly. If you have the flexibility, those days are most affordable, with Wednesday offering the best deals.

Travelers also pay a premium for the most sought-after times and nonstop flights.

"Sometimes you can find connecting airfare several hundred dollars cheaper than the nonstop airfare," Seaney said.

Relief in the fall?

Typically as kids head back to school late in the summer, prices go down. But Seaney and Cordle expect most of the major capacity cuts will happen in the fall.

"With the big capacity cutbacks the idea is to keep the prices higher," Seaney said. Traditional fall sales may not be on the horizon this year.

The upside? The cuts, which will leave fewer planes in the air, are likely to relieve stress on the air traffic control system that contributes to summer air travel nightmares.

"I think starting this fall we will see actually a better experience for a lot of people," Seaney said.

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