Zimbabwe and the rest of southern Africa

(CNN) -- How do the leaders of other southern African nations, who met about the crisis at the weekend, regard Robert Mugabe?

There is a commitment to the concept of African solidarity -- where leaders don't publicly criticize each other, especially elder statesmen such as the 84-year-old Mugabe. However, what is clear from the special summit on Zimbabwe -- held in Lusaka, Zambia, over the weekend -- is that there's a divide between those leaders who hail from liberation movements (South African, Angolan and Mozambican presidents), and newer leaders who don't have personal experience of liberation wars (Zambian, Tanzanian and Botswana leaders).

Collectively, they didn't publicly attack Mugabe, but there was a clear sense that the Zambian, Tanzanian and Botswana leaders wanted much stronger and more confrontational language included in the final summit resolution.

How much does Mugabe's role as the man who many see as liberating Zimbabwe from colonialism affect their attitude?

A lot -- the issue of colonialism is still a sensitive and emotive issue in Africa. Many of the southern African leaders who fought against racial oppression still view the world through the prism of colonialism. Mugabe is regarded inside and outside his country as a liberation hero, which he plays on very successfully. He constantly blames and berates Britain, the former colonial master, for Zimbabwe's ills. However, many younger Zimbabweans, born post-independence in 1980, feel this role is wearing thin.

Are the governments afraid that any regime change in Zimbabwe might set a precedent for their own nations?

No, that is not an overriding concern. However, for someone like South Africa's President Thabo Mbeki, who is a product of the anti-apartheid liberation movement, the prospect of an MDC government, which is rooted in the trade union movement, is not a comfortable scenario. Many in South Africa suggest a worker-aligned government in Zimbabwe might empower South Africa's own labor movement to break away from their alliance with the ruling ANC.

Do southern African leaders fear that sudden upheaval in Zimbabwe might spill over into their own countries, and cause a refugee crisis?

By all accounts there is already a refugee crisis, although many of Zimbabwe's neighbors will not admit this. Twenty-five percent of Zimbabwe's population, about 4 million people, has already fled their country in recent years. Most are in South Africa, Botswana and Britain.

Is there any indication that, behind the scenes, other southern African leaders are trying to persuade Mugabe to quit quietly?

It appears that Mugabe is not the quitting kind of guy. He sees himself as a revolutionary, a fighter, an intellectual and ultimately the best person to lead Zimbabwe. All regional negotiations to convince him to concede power have failed. Mugabe is also an arch-strategist and has outsmarted most of his political opponents, so he is unlikely he will give up power without a fight.

What is the attitude of other southern African leaders to Morgan Tsvangirai and the Movement for Democratic change? Would they oppose his coming to office?

That fact that southern African leaders invited Tsvangirai and the MDC to the weekend's summit was a clear shift and a sign that the MDC is considered a player. Mugabe did not attend the summit so it allowed the MDC to lobby regional leaders directly. In fact, Tsvangirai has gone out of his way to try to influence governments in the region -- such as Botswana and Zambia -- for moral support.

If violence does break out in Zimbabwe, as some fear, will other nations in the region intervene?

It is highly unlikely there will be any regional intervention. Regional leaders are extremely sensitive to any suggestions of interference in internal matters. For many, it smacks of neo-colonialism. That said, the MDC has said it would call for United Nations help if need be, but it's unclear what kind of assistance they would ask for and what kind of help they could get. The prospect of blue helmets operating inside Zimbabwe is not a likely scenario. E-mail to a friend

All About Zimbabwe • Robert Mugabe • Morgan Tsvangirai