Junta offers cheery referendum forecast

BANGKOK, Thailand (AP) -- Myanmar's junta will be hard-pressed to persuade the world that this Saturday's vote on a new and long-awaited constitution will be free and fair, coming just a week after a devastating cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Nargis hit at the weekend, and the Myanmar government was still tallying the dead.

Thousands of people were homeless and without food, water and electricity. The government has been criticized for failing to rush aid to victims, angering a public already simmering with discontent after the junta's deadly crackdown on pro-democracy protests in September 2007.

Logistically and politically, it couldn't be a worse time to ask voters to approve a draft constitution that critics say is designed to cement military rule.

"People are trying to rebuild their lives, find their families and friends. Nobody is interested in going to vote," Aung Din, director of the Washington-based advocacy group U.S. Campaign for Burma, said Monday, adding that the junta's slow response to the cyclone would likely generate a stronger "No" vote.

"Soldiers are used to arresting democracy advocates, but now they're nowhere to be seen," he said. "The people have been neglected by the government and that will surely have a negative impact on voting."

But public opinion -- and whether or not voters in cyclone-hit areas can physically reach polling stations -- doesn't appear to be the junta's concern, according to political analysts.

"The military regime has never had any intention of holding a free and fair vote," said Monique Skidmore, a Myanmar expert and professor at Australian National University. "They don't care if everyone votes or not. They care about the outcome and I have no doubt they will manipulate the outcome in their favor."

Junta officials indicated Monday that voting could be postponed by "a few days" in the hardest-hit areas but that polls would open as planned Saturday in most of the country, according to several Asian diplomats who attended a Foreign Ministry briefing in Yangon, Myanmar's biggest city. The diplomats agreed to speak on condition of anonymity.

State-run media Monday offered a cheery outlook for the vote, despite the death and destruction.

"It's only a few days left before the coming referendum and people are eager to cast their votes," the Myanma Ahlin newspaper said.

Myanmar's generals have hailed the referendum as an important step forward in their "roadmap to democracy." It offers the first chance for voters to cast ballots since 1990, and the probability is high they will approve the constitution -- a legal framework the country has lacked for two decades.

But democracy does not appear to be the junta's goal, say critics including the United Nations, the United States and human rights groups.

"The constitution will continue military power. There's no question about that," said David Steinberg, a Myanmar expert and Georgetown University professor who has been granted rare visits to meet junta officials.

The 194-page draft constitution paves the way for elections promised in 2010. It calls for a multiparty system, which the junta describes as a "discipline-flourishing democracy," in which the military retains key powers.

Myanmar, also known as Burma, has been ruled by military regimes since 1962. The current junta seized power in 1988, throwing out the country's last constitution.

A junta-appointed committee took 14 years to draft the proposed charter, refusing U.N. demands to seek input from the opposition.

One provision was apparently custom-made to keep detained democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi sidelined. It bars from elected office anyone married to a foreigner or with children holding a foreign nationality.

The 62-year-old widow, who has been detained for 12 of the past 18 years, was married to a British man and has two children who are British nationals. Deemed a national security threat, she is the world's only imprisoned Nobel Peace Prize recipient.

At the country's last election in 1990, Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy party won a landslide victory that the junta refused to honor. Instead, the generals stepped up arrests and repression of dissidents.

A strong military presence in future governments would be guaranteed by clauses in the draft charter that reserve several Cabinet seats for military officers as well as one-quarter of the seats in both houses of parliament.

Changing the text would be tricky: Amendments would require approval by more than 75 percent of lawmakers, meaning backing from some of the soldiers sitting in parliament.

Myanmar watchers say the run-up to the referendum has been marked by no debate, no polls and no effort to inform the public about the contents of the draft constitution. All criticism has been quickly silenced.

Suu Kyi's party has called on the public to vote "No," but its message is ignored by state-controlled media which is overrun with propaganda promoting a "Yes" vote.

"To approve the state constitution is a national duty," reads a banner across recent front pages of the New Light of Myanmar newspaper. E-mail to a friend

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