Serbia's future hinges on vote

(CNN) -- Voters in Serbia go to the polls Sunday in an election that could shape the country's future just as the province of Kosovo plans to declare independence.

The vote's outcome could determine whether Serbia forges closer ties with the European Union or drifts further toward Russia by embracing a form of nationalism that colored bloodshed in the Balkans in the 1990s.

Looming over the campaign is the controversial plan of an ethnic Albanian majority in Kosovo to declare independence. Kosovo is a province of Serbia that has been under United Nations control since shortly after NATO warplanes forced out Serbian forces in 1999.

Incumbent President Boris Tadic, a western-leaning leader who has pushed for Serbia's inclusion into the European Union, faces challenger Tomislav Nikolic, an ultra nationalist.

Both candidates oppose independence for Kosovo.

"Do not dare touch Serbia," Nikolic said at a recent rally. "Serbia has its borders. Serbia has its people."

Tension between Serbians and ethnic Albanians in Kosovo boiled over in the late 1990s, after the nascent Kosovo Liberation Army began attacking Serbian forces in Kosovo. The Serbian authorities responded with a brutal crackdown that sparked reports of massacres and triggered an exodus of tens of thousands of ethnic Albanian refugees from Kosovo.

International mediators failed to persuade Serbian leaders to leave Kosovo, and NATO planes conducted a 78-day bombing campaign to dislodge them in 1999. Shortly thereafter, the United Nations began to administer Kosovo.

Nikolic is a former ally of Slobodan Milosevic, who led the Serbian crackdown in Kosovo and also was blamed for leading a campaign of ethnic cleansing in other Balkan regions. He was forced from office in 2000 and was on trial for war-crimes at a U.N. tribunal in The Hague when authorities say he died of a heart attack in 2006.

Serbia's closest ally, Russia, has warned against independence for Kosovo, but Kosovo's assembly approved a coalition government this month that favors becoming a separate nation.

"We are ready for independence," said Hajredin Kuci, deputy prime minster of Kosovo. "We are working toward having our country independent."

The incumbent president of Serbia, Tadic, has made Serbia's case opposing Kosovo's independence at the United Nations.

"Nobody has the right to destabilize Serbia and the Balkans by hasty and unilateral decisions which would have unforeseeable consequences for other regions," he said.

The United States and many European countries have indicated a willingness to recognize an independent Kosovo.

Depending on the results from Sunday's vote, a runoff election could be held in Serbia on February 3. E-mail to a friend

All About Serbia • Kosovo • Tomislav Nikolic • Boris Tadic • European Union