Italy's growing political crisis

ROME, Italy (CNN) -- "Mamma mia, dotto', che sta succedendo?"

"What is happening, Sir?" This is how the doorman greeted me this morning referring to the latest political crisis in Italy.

I don't know if he supports the current prime minister, Romano Prodi, or whether he prefers the center-right opposition leader Silvio Berlusconi. But I do know that he, like most Italians, is tired of politics, politicians and their perceived inability to govern.

Recent opinion poll analysis suggests Italians have lost confidence in all state institutions: the presidency, the parliament, the government, the judiciary and, yes, you guessed it, the church.

The last thing this country needs at this time is another political crisis that would result in more instability and more dissatisfaction among people here.

Yet this is exactly what is happening. After less than two years in office, Prime Minister Romano Prodi is fighting for his (political) survival.

He has been doing so since he won the elections by a wafer thin majority in April 2006, but last week his minister of justice resigned amid corruption allegations (which he denied). He announced that his party, which has less than two percent of national representation and holds only three out of 315 senate seats, was pulling out.

In most countries, a small party like that wouldn't make it to parliament, and certainly would not be put in a position to hold an entire national government hostage. Here it means that, without those three senators Prodi does not have a working majority.

In this country, the Prime Minister needs the support of both houses of parliament (and even then it's a challenge to govern here). Imagine what would happen if he did not control one of them.

There have been suggestions of "grand coalitions" like that in Germany for example, but that kind of agreement has never been reached. Prodi needs the support of the full parliament, since all legislation must be approved by both houses of parliament before being adopted. Prodi no longer controls the Senate, so it is stalemate.

This situation is due, in part, to the existing electoral law (hastily adopted by Berlusconi only months before the 2006 elections). The highly proportional system produced a plethora of political parties (39 of them in the lower house of parliament).

Mr. Prodi's coalition counts nine of them, including Catholics, Communists, former Communists and Greens. It has been a struggle for Prodi to keep them from bickering and attacking each other.

It is now likely that Prodi will have to resign by handing over his mandate to the Italian President, Giorgio Napolitano. He will have two options: call for snap elections, or appoint a caretaker Prime Minister, hopefully with the specific mandate to change the existing electoral law.

The latter option would have the benefit of ending the existing stalemate. An election under old rules would once again give the opportunity to small parties to act (and behave) as kingmakers. Nothing will change, and months from now I will still be here writing about political crisis in Italy.

The problem is that Berlusconi wants elections immediately, since most opinion polls suggest he would win. The small parties, too, are in favor of keeping the current electoral law. So it is unlikely that a caretaker Prime Minister could muster enough support to change the electoral law.

The result: well, we are all seeing it in front of our eyes. Nobody is really sure what will happen in the coming hours and days.

So while the world watches the turmoil in financial markets, Italians are consumed by yet another political crisis that is likely to produce real little change. Rest assured though, a solution will be found and soon we'll all have forgotten that there was a political crisis in Italy.

Investors worldwide certainly hope their economic woes could disappear just as quickly. E-mail to a friend

All About Silvio Berlusconi • Romano Prodi • Italy