Economic interest at the heart of Serb vote

(CNN) -- In his victory speech Monday incumbent Serb leader Boris Tadic made it clear he sees his country's future lying within the EU.

Although his win over ultranationalist rival Tomislav Nikolic was not entirely unexpected it still raises some interesting questions:

With public opinion in Serbia overwhelmingly set against independence for the province of Kosovo, why did voters reward a pro-Europe candidate when the EU has made clear it backs an independent Kosovo?

Backing Tadic also means endorsing a leader who has repeatedly said that he will cooperate with the U.N. war crimes tribunal that is pursuing former Serb general Ratko Mladic.

Mladic is accused by prosecutors in The Hague of being responsible for the deaths of thousands of Muslims in the Balkans conflict. Still considered a war hero by many in his homeland, the hunt for Mladic is unpopular among many Serbs who see it as an attack on national pride.

In the end, however, it seems that economic factors won the day in the weekend vote.

Serbs opted for the candidate who will most likely improve their lives and living standards. Unemployment is around 30 percent in Serbia, foreign investments are minimal and living standards remain amongst the lowest in the region.

Voters who backed Tadic know that Europe means economic and financial aid. And right now what people want in Serbia is a better life, not more propaganda about who they are or what they should be.

Serbs made their choice and opted for greater European integration and closer cooperation with European institutions. And Europe is ready to reward Serbia by paving the way for the former Yugoslav republic to become a member of the EU.

Nevertheless, the nationalist view still carries a lot of weight in Serbia.

Nikolic won the first round of voting, so there is a sizeable number of people who still believe the future lies with a "Greater Serbia."

This is a reality many Serbs have lived with for more than a decade now, victims of the state-run propaganda championed by former leader Slobodan Milosevic.

However, the promised dream of a "Greater Serbia" has vanished into what is today an ever shrinking nation -- Kosovo will be the last piece of the jigsaw puzzle to break away from what was once Yugoslavia.

Serbs oppose Kosovo's independence, and indeed both presidential candidates ran a campaign to that effect. No Serb politician could survive politically if he was perceived as betraying Kosovo's Serbian minority.

Goran Svilanovic, a former Serb foreign minister, received death threats just for agreeing to discuss the question of Kosovo's independence.

As for Kosovo, even though it will declare independence it will still remain under outside influence for a long time to come.

For a start the international community will continue to be deeply involved in its future. Thousands of NATO troops will remain on its soil to guarantee security, the EU will send a team of about 1,800 "justice and law" officers in charge of assisting Kosovo's transition to independence.

Internationally, there will be many nations who will not recognize it: Russia and China (members of the U.N. Security Council), but also Spain, Romania and Cyprus within Europe are concerned to set a precedent for their own ethnic minorities.

So while in the coming days or weeks Kosovo is expected to declare independence, its status won't be much different from the one now. The biggest change will be that the EU will take over from the U.N. to run the daily affairs. But to outsiders -- Serbs included -- that matters little.

Tadic will continue to negotiate through EU institutions opposing Kosovo's independence (and call for negotiations based on greater autonomy for the province), while Kosovo Albanians will celebrate a 'supervised' independence which is certainly another step closer to 'full independence', but it will take a decade or more to achieve that status.

By that time though Serbia's choice to go with Europe may have provided a solution to the Kosovo problem.

Serbia and Kosovo are likely by then to be members of the EU, a place where borders don't really matter.

As for Ratko Mladic, the wanted war criminal, he lives on the run and probably will outlive the duration of the U.N. tribunal -- unlike his former boss Milosevic who died while on trial in The Hague. E-mail to a friend

All About Serbia • Kosovo • Boris Tadic • Slobodan Milosevic