Serb vote signals shift to the West

(CNN) -- European Union diplomats are highly relieved that Boris Tadic, the incumbent and leader of the Serbian Democratic Party has repeated his 2004 triumph over Tomislav Nikolic, once again overturning his rival's first round lead in the final vote.

The economic reformer Tadic had told Serbs they faced a stark choice between isolation and a brighter economic future within the EU, words echoed by EU Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn.

Though the margin of victory, around 51percent to 47 percent, was not huge and Serbia has been polarised by the contest , diplomats believe that Tadic's victory will have a significant long term effect in turning Serbia's eyes west, helping to attract inward investment and contributing to the stability of the Balkans..

Tadic's hardline nationalist opponent Tomislav Nikolic, an ally of the former President Slobodan Milosevic and the leader of the Serbian Radical Party, had been urging Serbs by contrast to forge stronger links with Russia, tying that to the most emotive issue in the campaign, the future of Kosovo.

Russia, said Nikolic "is our friend who will prevent the EU and U.S. from taking Kosovo away from us" although he did little to explain how.

Nikolic, who went to Moscow during the Serbian presidential election campaign with Milosevic's brother, had even indicated he would be willing to house Russian nuclear missiles in Serbia as a counter to the U.S. missile shield being developed in Poland and the Czech Republic.

For the Serbs Kosovo, although now peopled 90 percent by Albanians, is seen as the cradle of their culture, religion and traditions and Tadic too has pledged to do everything he can to keep Serbian control of Kosovo, administered since 1999 by the United Nations.

With both the U.S. and EU expected to support an early declaration of independence by the Kosovar Prime Minister Hashim Thaci the new President faces a difficult challenge.

Now the question of the Serbian presidency has been resolved, European diplomats hope that Thaci and Kosovan president Fatmir Sejdiu can be persuaded to hold off an independence declaration for a few weeks while they talk to Tadic and seek to find ways of sugaring the pill of Kosovar independence, perhaps by fast-tracking some Serbian moves towards EU membership.

Nikolic is urging that if the EU recognises Kosovar independence then negotiations should be broken off.

Some EU countries are making it a condition of moving Serbia closer to membership of the bloc that it must capture and hand over General Ratko Mladic and his political ally Radovan Karadic, wanted for alleged Bosnian war crimes.

Tadic has long been pledged to co-operation in that enterprise; Nikolic had made it clear that co-operation with the U.N. War Crimes Tribunal in The Hague did not figure on his list of priorities. E-mail to a friend

All About Serbia • Kosovo • Boris Tadic • Slobodan Milosevic