'No' vote set to win Irish EU ballot

DUBLIN, Ireland (AP) -- Irish Justice Minister Dermot Ahern says substantial referendum returns show that Ireland has rejected the European Union reform treaty.

Electoral officials expect to confirm the result later Friday. Ahern based his conclusion on tallies of votes produced nationally by election observers as well as early official returns. They show the "no" camp ahead in the vast majority of Ireland's 43 electoral constituencies, while pro-treaty voters were clearly ahead in only a few.

The expected result will send shock waves throughout the 27-nation bloc. Ireland was the only member to subject the Lisbon Treaty to a popular vote, while the others have been ratifying the painstakingly negotiated pact only through their national governments.

Ahern said "We're in uncharted waters."

A "no" outcome would throw the EU into renewed diplomatic turmoil and fuel cries across the continent for more democratic accountability at the heart of the bloc.

The Lisbon Treaty was painstakingly negotiated following the failure of the EU's proposed constitution, which French and Dutch voters rejected in 2005.

All EU nations must approve the Lisbon Treaty for it to become law. The other 26 members planned to ratify the document only through their national governments. Eighteen have already done so, while the rest were waiting for Ireland's referendum result.

The treaty seeks to rescue from the constitution's ashes many reforms to make the EU function better. These included beefing up the roles of the EU's president and foreign policy chief, and reducing the areas where individual nations could veto policy changes.

The mammoth, densely worded document faced its only popular electoral test in Ireland, a traditionally pro-EU state that has broadly benefited from membership.

Yet even here, a majority of voters appeared determined to register their opposition to the growth of a continental government that would erode Ireland's sense of independence.

Anti-treaty pressure groups warned that the EU would use treaty powers to reduce Ireland's ability to control its own tax rates and maintain a ban on abortion -- claims vociferously rejected by the government.

Politicians from the government and major opposition parties -- all of whom campaigned for the treaty's ratification -- appeared uniformly grim-faced Friday as counting progressed in 43 constituencies nationwide.

"I do not see how we're going to claw back our position based on the numbers I'm seeing. It's going pretty much all the way of the `no' camp," said Pat Rabbitte, former leader of the opposition Labour Party.

And anti-EU activists expressed growing confidence they would triumph when official results are declared Friday afternoon.

"People felt a convincing case for the treaty had not been made, and they felt hectored and bullied into supporting it while the wool was being pulled over their eyes," said Richard Boyd Barrett, leader of a hard-left pressure group called People Before Profit.

No official results were available.

However, Ireland's legions of "tallymen" -- seasoned political activists who observe the ballot counting and provide reports to their own parties and pressure groups -- said the "no" camp appeared well in the lead in rural and urban working-class areas.

Tallymen and other observers said the pro-treaty vote appeared to be holding up only in Dublin's more middle-class districts. But even there, they said, the "yes" votes were barely running neck and neck with the "nos."

Enda Kenny, leader of the main opposition Fine Gael party, said he was certain that voters in his own constituency of County Mayo had voted to reject the treaty. There, as throughout the rural west of Ireland, tallymen reported the "no" camp attracting more than 60 percent of votes.

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